Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6194a903aad801dca566996d6b0458356e0991f33cbe7566be0a6b02f64c84c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8042…581cbacked Yes | 0c | 14,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…ebabbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…63d9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 2c | 2,583$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 794$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.79 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…045fbacked Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 7c | 743.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 665.14$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 11c | 627.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 609.48$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 495.86$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…7236backed Yes | 10c | 417.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 11c | 366.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 16c | 334.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 318.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed No | 70c | 282.92$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 270.93$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 236.11$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…6903backed Yes | 19c | 223.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 15c | 218.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 20c | 216.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 15c | 211.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 203.14$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 202.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 18c | 199.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 189.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 34c | 168.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 11c | 146.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 129.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 40c | 125.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 120.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 39c | 115.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 10c | 113$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 15c | 106.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 80c | 103.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 102.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 19c | 101.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed Yes | 22c | 99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 98.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 80c | 93.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 89.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 35c | 88.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…6104backed Yes | 24c | 82.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…506bbacked Yes | 16c | 79.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 71.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 67.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 32c | 62.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 36c | 59.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 22c | 58.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed No | 64c | 53.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 38c | 46.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 78c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 24c | 42.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 39c | 38.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 61c | 38.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 38c | 36.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 35c | 34.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 71c | 30.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 62c | 28.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 71c | 28.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 70c | 26.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…ab6fbacked No | 66c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 78c | 21.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 62c | 21.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…95fcbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…47cfbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…8b12backed No | 78c | 13.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.