Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x723b6e8d3aa5077751a1a2a087fdd44bbd0aba1e2de3c7b1eedb9324c4d0fcd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,257 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8195…145cbacked No | 1c | 76,000$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f3…94cbbacked No | 1c | 16,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 1c | 3,274$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 65c | 2,209$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.38 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…fc7ebacked No | 2c | 1,577$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0d…4987backed No | 3c | 1,481$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 1,473$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…cd90backed No | 53c | 1,350$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.66 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 1c | 1,135$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 70c | 1,093$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.14 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…88f6backed Yes | 30c | 1,084$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.01 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 25c | 958.47$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.62 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 63c | 720.57$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.59 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 27c | 636.71$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.36 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 517.83$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.27 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 14c | 474.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 405.93$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 354.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.99 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 5c | 249.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.78 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 71c | 244.22$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 41c | 211.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.51 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4180…2fa3backed Yes | 6c | 199.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 23c | 181.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.44 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 179.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 171.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dd…b444backed Yes | 12c | 167.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 58c | 138.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 66c | 136.72$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 15c | 129.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 26c | 113.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 109.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 27c | 96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 66c | 81.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 54c | 46.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1879…b287backed No | 39c | 45.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1508…5760backed Yes | 43c | 42.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…f0cdbacked Yes | 48c | 33.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 36c | 33.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 71c | 29.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed Yes | 65c | 22.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 53c | 19.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 79c | 17.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.