Us Politics · resolved market
Epstein "I beat Bush" Email unredacted by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe07d8ccab174ba2606f47f92c2e1f7564189ece25315f55a929ae2916c14fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 18c | 6,207$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.09 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 14c | 2,023$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,961$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.69 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes | 16c | 1,681$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,250$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.37 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b0…cf23backed Yes | 8c | 517.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 7c | 387.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 16c | 375$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 272.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 15c | 271$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…c213backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 166.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 20c | 160.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 14c | 139.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 138.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 15c | 127.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…68fabacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…5813backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cc…dd54backed Yes | 28c | 88.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3d…b48cbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…b054backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 68c | 46.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 68c | 44.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f5…869fbacked Yes | 28c | 43.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462c…53bfbacked No | 57c | 26.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.