Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5598e34740e6324bc8c5ad3c462cab83464b71c89362a85b15aebc9e8a535488
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,863 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4674…03cabacked Yes | 79c | 1,907$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.29 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 1c | 1,700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 1,693$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 23c | 773$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.41 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 8c | 760.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.53 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 26c | 744.51$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.71 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…5b3bbacked Yes | 72c | 663.17$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 615.61$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 15c | 601.48$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 15c | 550.3$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.89 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 71c | 448.7$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.86 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…c213backed Yes | 25c | 425.86$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.44 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +367%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 380.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.38 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 365.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 26c | 305.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.29 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 7c | 294.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f1…04e9backed Yes | 11c | 281.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +668.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 7c | 230$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.9 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 6c | 229.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.68 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 7c | 221.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.35 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 8c | 180.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.35 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes | 76c | 149.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed Yes | 79c | 140$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 8c | 124.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.93 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 101.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 25c | 99.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 52c | 94.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b3…52debacked Yes | 57c | 87.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 80c | 70.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 66c | 65.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 44c | 65.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 78c | 42.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 55c | 36.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x022f…49cfbacked No | 64c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 65c | 28.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 15.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 20°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.