Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20529e113a33675768a5cb7c05be2fda3b0a462db10a3047a9fdc45086100c27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,030 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 3,087$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,304$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,072$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 5c | 962.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 7c | 739.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…61babacked Yes | 16c | 471.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 4c | 452$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 419.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 240$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 35c | 224.14$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 9c | 132$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 118.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 64c | 107.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 92.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 72c | 81.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 80.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked No | 63c | 75.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 36c | 63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 28c | 60.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 21c | 58.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 28c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 38c | 46.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…2a41backed Yes | 35c | 31.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x893d…da13backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 66c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 18.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 20°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.