Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x133eda1be7a5526cdf303b749700ca0b6b6c271623f087b37f9c4e31f43bc527
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,958 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 512.41$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 10c | 429.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.58 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…0f8fbacked No | 80c | 401.93$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…c213backed Yes | 42c | 390.87$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.69 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +367%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 11c | 148.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.17 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 148.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 17c | 147.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 14c | 139.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 21c | 139.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.72 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 19c | 137.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.94 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 20c | 120.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 43c | 119.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 105.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…83afbacked Yes | 69c | 81.49$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 51c | 79.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 55c | 74.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 28c | 72.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 18c | 61.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 53c | 58.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 26c | 56.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 35c | 56.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…c236backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…71b3backed Yes | 80c | 38.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 70c | 35.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 35.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 33.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 50c | 23.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…3c9cbacked No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.