TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$113,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,449 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes6c6,000$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.6611425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea1…be28backed Yes17c3,019$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c2,990$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.142560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc54d…8be1backed No79c2,400$1,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.03862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes72c2,085$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.674736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes9c2,037$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.585012%6 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No78c1,854$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.559632.3%31 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c9f…069fbacked No22c1,718$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3371100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+350.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes18c1,664$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes7c1,620$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.171867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82cf…0998backed No60c1,429$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-44.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes13c1,386$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.2720731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes14c1,368$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.687946.8%37 W · 42 L+10.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7b72…124fbacked No77c1,319$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.183100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+80.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked No78c1,260$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.21662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+31.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x00d9…12dfbacked Yes25c1,167$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.521713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes16c999.98$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c968.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.152522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa732…8818backed Yes80c900$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Yes24c863.17$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.4wins-0.40per pick49cpaid-88.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes9c832.61$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.899333.3%31 W · 62 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x58fe…a8c5backed Yes18c791$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.381181.8%9 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.37per pick44cpaid+96.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes20c712$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.661414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-41.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed Yes22c697$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.342142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No79c692$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.091662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes3c683.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.13185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ad7…c55bbacked Yes45c660.57$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes5c657.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.471754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes8c630.27$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.88140%0 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe005…14fdbacked Yes59c620.4$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3681752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+20.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes13c612$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.562330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x722f…f17fbacked Yes12c606$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.721241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+88.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda44…2e5abacked Yes33c599.99$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1981675%12 W · 4 L+4.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+83.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes13c596$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.481457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes23c574$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.021643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c553.2$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.741,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes24c537.61$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-78.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes23c528.57$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9859…0176backed Yes12c514$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.681338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727e…8b9dbacked Yes8c508.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e77…3273backed Yes22c505$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes23c491$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.931533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed No77c454$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.422445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked No80c438$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.61323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.2wins-0.32per pick55cpaid-67%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c425$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1718311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd1…2bb3backed Yes12c418$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.16728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e2…e1babacked Yes16c413$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.081338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed Yes12c412$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.441225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No48c404.55$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.2711855.9%66 W · 52 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163540%14 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f01…c213backed No25c400$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1b8…84e3backed No80c385$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf92a…9134backed Yes20c385$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…cca3backed Yes18c375.01$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.972729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70e7…4a70backed Yes13c368$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.841136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe309…44c2backed Yes23c367$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.412245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a54…db64backed No77c367$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.41475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+130.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes4c358.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.47486.3%3 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes16c349.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.817132.4%23 W · 48 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+49.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f30…8547backed No77c349.22$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d58…34e0backed Yes18c347$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.461250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d48…d6f1backed Yes15c343$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.451540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes16c337.36$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4520544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes18c336.37$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4111841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbc…d620backed Yes19c332$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.08825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes15c328.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.551540%6 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed No79c322.39$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.915048%24 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes12c310$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes13c310$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.31741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes12c310$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.22744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes15c307.41$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2620418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33b3…d03dbacked No79c306.78$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.422650%13 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x665e…ea7ebacked No67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes22c288$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.361747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes29c273.38$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2360%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe95b…1f15backed Yes12c271$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+108.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes9c265.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.346123%14 W · 47 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes12c251$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d2…39f0backed Yes12c249$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.881145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes19c249$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.311625%4 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-52.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes21c235.65$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4570%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x427e…5ab4backed Yes19c234$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.46922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ab…d0a0backed No78c230$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.61442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-33.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9498…d950backed Yes12c219$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.28100%0 W · 10 L-4.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c216.62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0140712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d29…919dbacked Yes60c207.54$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes18c206.47$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.952157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205221.2%11 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2314643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No39c192.05$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.158247.6%39 W · 43 L+19.9wins+0.24per pick23cpaid+108.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes12c188.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.863046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0da3…e708backed Yes31c187.87$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9460%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked Yes12c180$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5930…236abacked Yes23c175$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.631233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+31%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes18c147.86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.758220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes11c144.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1519337.3%72 W · 121 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes19c142.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.061631.3%5 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x898f…536abacked No77c129.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes8c129.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.041963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+33.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.