TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,980
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,378

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,980 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4e32…8a33backed Yes37c2,418$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.11735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d29…919dbacked Yes66c2,392$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57320%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c2,250$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2521713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed Yes12c2,155$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.952334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes16c2,016$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.5211425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Yes39c1,538$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.821258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+46%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3eae…5e6dbacked No77c1,425$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x968f…a539backed Yes57c1,406$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.422441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed Yes57c1,244$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.082166.7%14 W · 7 L+5.5wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+88.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb73e…975ebacked Yes57c1,222$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.54540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c29…7570backed Yes34c1,196$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.68862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+95.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes30c1,190$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.5220731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No15c1,066$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.15510.9%6 W · 49 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes34c1,061$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.48850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa94…3601backed No66c1,060$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.42425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a41…1160backed No63c1,050$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes27c1,040$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.415012%6 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes39c959$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.011656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+96%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb767…9b51backed No63c948$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.762045%9 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+49.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes37c926.95$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.297946.8%37 W · 42 L+10.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No26c918.54$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.988247.6%39 W · 43 L+19.9wins+0.24per pick23cpaid+108.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xde9f…cd36backed No57c898$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.141275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+63.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6546…c454backed No43c894$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.581478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.3wins+0.31per pick48cpaid+142.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe005…14fdbacked Yes64c873.28$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5571752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+20.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe590…87bfbacked Yes39c853$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.671533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe309…44c2backed No61c836$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.042245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce55…1796backed No62c836$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.681060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+44.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x987e…990dbacked Yes19c825$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.56425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bc2…7ed7backed No65c772.11$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No8c750$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6907035.7%25 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+71.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8507…7f61backed Yes37c735$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.951225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed No43c725$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.253345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2cb…6e8fbacked No73c688.97$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.971030%3 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick59cpaid-59.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xded6…81ebbacked No79c685.15$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c8…7861backed No55c682$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.085100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+101.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf977…aff0backed Yes13c674$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.271861.1%11 W · 7 L+5.4wins+0.30per pick31cpaid+144.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed No55c640.33$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.275048%24 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f68…2238backed Yes13c633$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.82955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes43c622$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.461540%6 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc2…297bbacked Yes13c611$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.87742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37cd…54c8backed No71c593.25$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.78475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed No43c546.03$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.243336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a37…141abacked Yes44c541$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.042343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83be…6f94backed No61c531$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.091936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No12c522.12$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.642462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2c9…a644backed No62c499.99$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43a6…8b32backed No74c499.98$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.49887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+42.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed Yes36c484$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.381735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-29.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed No43c480$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.61172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+80.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1eaa…b550backed Yes57c480$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.61353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes32c478.28$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.729333.3%31 W · 62 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd22a…ac22backed No43c462$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.34837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9859…0176backed No71c455$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.861338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x636c…ea28backed No56c454$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.76837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3af9…2cdbbacked Yes29c452$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.981040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf47e…5031backed No75c448.99$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.791442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ea7…2550backed Yes38c448$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.241457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No15c448$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.261867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked No71c438$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.91741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e9e…bd49backed No61c428$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.92742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10bc…0451backed Yes29c421$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.93837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes29c415.84$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.461,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ef…f5cebacked No56c408$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.521643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes38c397$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.862254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+58.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x246f…0ab2backed No62c397$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.86977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+38.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda44…2e5abacked Yes59c396.01$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.21675%12 W · 4 L+4.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+83.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5ae7…3e12backed No63c393.39$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.554736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c9a…f183backed No43c372$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.041163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+127.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c2e…e025backed No56c368$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.922161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x291f…6c53backed No55c363.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de8…293cbacked No61c362$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.181553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes57c356$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.921145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95e8…6f21backed No43c356$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.92911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.41per pick52cpaid-74.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes79c354$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.2312050.8%61 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes39c350$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0a8…0c57backed No61c350$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.51346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed Yes57c340$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.81844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed Yes37c338$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.061553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed Yes25c332.53$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.412927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-51.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1645…9022backed No56c321.13$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.13650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked No63c317$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.293132.3%10 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes37c317$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.29944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76fd…e8c4backed Yes39c312$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.68944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+75.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2f5…8e1ebacked No43c308$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.56785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+68.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d7aabacked No60c306$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.42334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No80c300$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.66659.1%39 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes38c299$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.622030%6 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-41.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb25…5b6bbacked No43c299$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.431758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes57c283$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.312556%14 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x169a…55e4backed No43c283$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.311973.7%14 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+84.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9b47…9930backed Yes43c276$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.68825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+19%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes31c271.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.277132.4%23 W · 48 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+49.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No76c268.05$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.553551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked No62c262.72$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.752646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked No59c251$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.911353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed Yes41c251$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.912445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x665e…ea7ebacked No56c247.35$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.321233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90e2…7babbacked Yes35c245$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.751631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a79…1ccbbacked No65c245$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.751643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f17…e4a7backed Yes53c230$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.