TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x665e…ea7e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
70
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst AI at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3959%23 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+31%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+128%+$287.75
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$96
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$610
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$142
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$471Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$471
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+362%+$109.15
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$289.4
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+150.8%+$83.58
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$675Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+48.2%+$325.02
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+86.3%+$207.48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$255
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+118.5%+$236.93
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$135
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$176.72
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$220
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.61
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$320
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$604Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$158.53
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$349.24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$364Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$364
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,175Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$325
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$284.88
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$373Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+160.5%+$597.82
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$544Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$256
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.33
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$584Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$583.99
Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.49
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+124.7%+$167.5
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$59.99
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$228
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.2
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.92
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+79.2%+$109.32
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.42
ChatGPT Outage by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$99
All 12 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-48.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-58.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+162.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+79.2%+$39.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will March 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$330
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.