AI · resolved market
Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca64daec7c852c797c0b03196e18cff0b0003b01bc24404234ed7b32d651f66a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 9c | 1,400$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.78 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 75c | 549.04$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.96 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a52…d74cbacked Yes | 15c | 505.34$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…293ebacked Yes | 25c | 431.82$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 40c | 352.14$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.41 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…72eebacked Yes | 34c | 201.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +289.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…0969backed Yes | 54c | 183.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…6013backed Yes | 60c | 167.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 140.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 16c | 100.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…eabdbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 83.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x11fd…d5d5backed Yes | 20c | 56.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8883…2299backed Yes | 43c | 51.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…abc0backed Yes | 28c | 46.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…ea7ebacked Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…e4d6backed Yes | 54c | 27.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed No | 72c | 20.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30?this page
- Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?Yes won
- Will Claude Code Commits be between 500.0k and 550.0k on June 30?No won
- Will Claude Code Commits be between 550.0k and 600.0k on June 30?No won
- Will Claude Code Commits be between 600.0k and 650.0k on June 30?No won
- Will Claude Code Commits be between 650.0k and 700.0k on June 30?No won
- Will Claude Code Commits be less than 500.0k on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.