AI · resolved market
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f0ad5a25212740c32b5f6fe600eefa105c659ad28c82fb87dbfa55380bbbc29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a52…d74cbacked Yes | 34c | 5,116$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,359.98 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…6cc7backed No | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…4246backed Yes | 51c | 2,438$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.51 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 3c | 2,040$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 54c | 2,039$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.27 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0019…6629backed No | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 55c | 1,948$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.21 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…293ebacked No | 36c | 1,668$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 21c | 1,603$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.11 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 56c | 1,486$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.45 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 24c | 1,281$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cb…0a37backed Yes | 79c | 1,232$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb492…12dabacked No | 8c | 1,210$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 21c | 1,101$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.08 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…9cd5backed No | 50c | 1,088$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 42c | 1,031$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.14 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 13c | 919.68$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.51 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…694fbacked Yes | 78c | 812.89$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 752.43$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 33c | 702.29$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.54 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 11c | 647.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 19c | 638$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 15c | 523.41$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 15c | 519.38$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 5c | 510$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 7c | 503.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 10c | 500$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed No | 13c | 492.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 12c | 445.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…a5d4backed No | 10c | 432.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 9c | 432.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 34c | 390.42$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.64 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e69…7f76backed No | 5c | 335.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 11c | 304.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 9c | 273$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…a7b7backed Yes | 33c | 224.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 218.14$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.73 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 14c | 203.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 73c | 185.18$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…eabdbacked No | 15c | 175.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 12c | 169.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 165$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 71c | 156.04$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 79c | 150.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.44 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc6…66ecbacked No | 24c | 145.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…0969backed No | 73c | 136.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 120.38$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 16c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 27c | 105$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ba…4cedbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 92.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 23c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 83.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…8fd0backed No | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 83.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 59c | 82.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…463bbacked No | 12c | 80.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1f…e77ebacked No | 69c | 78.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 41c | 76.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 51c | 61.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked No | 29c | 61.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 71c | 60.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 27c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed Yes | 31c | 57.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 28cpaid | +222.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 49.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 48.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 46c | 47.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0f…7ce6backed Yes | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 33c | 42.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…444dbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 75c | 38.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 39c | 28.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 59c | 27.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6117…ec76backed Yes | 56c | 26.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed Yes | 74c | 26.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff28…a560backed Yes | 41c | 25.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 47c | 24.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdae5…6fc8backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 61c | 18.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe811…77e5backed Yes | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?this page
- Will Claude Code Commits be between 500.0k and 550.0k on June 30?No won
- Will Claude Code Commits be between 550.0k and 600.0k on June 30?No won
- Will Claude Code Commits be between 600.0k and 650.0k on June 30?No won
- Will Claude Code Commits be between 650.0k and 700.0k on June 30?No won
- Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30?No won
- Will Claude Code Commits be less than 500.0k on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.