World Politics · resolved market
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x006e3bc30b325c9cd4e4a35e33738e7f49634dc353f8495303d511b875d8ad5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $923,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $921,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $923,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 899 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 70c | 41,286$28,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,590.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 59c | 31,586$18,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,815.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 44c | 23,128$10,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,278.15 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed Yes | 52c | 22,902$11,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,061.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked No | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 31c | 20,827$6,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,405.63 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 32c | 19,587$6,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,196.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…6a24backed No | 0c | 18,860$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 31c | 18,066$5,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,633.23 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…b257backed No | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…37cabacked No | 32c | 13,506$4,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,321.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f72…99c6backed No | 0c | 12,780$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…72a4backed No | 47c | 11,230$5,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,231.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cc…feb0backed No | 21c | 10,395$2,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,213.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe40…3bf6backed Yes | 78c | 10,223$7,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,226.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…c657backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…24e2backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7f…312cbacked Yes | 61c | 8,587$5,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,313.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 38c | 7,956$2,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,990.95 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6e…f73dbacked No | 70c | 7,391$5,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,148.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7afe…9449backed No | 34c | 7,109$2,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,396.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed No | 0c | 6,593$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 42c | 6,252$2,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,640.77 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f1…c759backed No | 24c | 6,073$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9b…5112backed No | 31c | 5,664$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc4…c423backed Yes | 63c | 5,443$3,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 40c | 5,347$2,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,135.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 53c | 5,000$2,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,648.69 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 47c | 4,659$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.44 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…3239backed No | 7c | 4,647$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 50c | 4,422$2,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,216.1 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 8c | 4,419$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.31 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…915dbacked No | 43c | 4,223$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,821.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 39c | 4,118$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b6…6457backed Yes | 30c | 4,003$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,801.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…eba6backed No | 46c | 3,771$1,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c4…1893backed Yes | 50c | 3,697$1,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,856.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 34c | 3,646$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 3c | 3,500$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c5…af5dbacked No | 29c | 3,500$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58d…d791backed Yes | 49c | 3,490$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…f362backed Yes | 60c | 3,266$1,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…080ebacked No | 47c | 3,197$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.83 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b72…beddbacked No | 23c | 3,165$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 3,165$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.06 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…2289backed No | 7c | 3,162$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe458…7abebacked Yes | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed76…8520backed No | 34c | 2,967$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 15c | 2,910$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.8 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 46c | 2,876$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…7439backed No | 34c | 2,828$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…df37backed Yes | 75c | 2,794$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.97 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 2,720$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.39 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…0bc5backed Yes | 52c | 2,658$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7796…f67cbacked No | 28c | 2,646$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…4700backed No | 43c | 2,518$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed No | 30c | 2,471$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +387%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 61c | 2,378$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.18 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…229abacked Yes | 58c | 2,345$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…dd6bbacked No | 33c | 2,300$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked No | 35c | 2,291$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 19c | 2,270$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840.85 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +15.2wins | +0.28per pick | 31cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked No | 33c | 2,233$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 51c | 2,186$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.11 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…e00abacked No | 25c | 2,166$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 33c | 2,100$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 6c | 2,079$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.43 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 30c | 2,001$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.69 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccd…6e3cbacked Yes | 69c | 2,000$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…2e90backed No | 35c | 1,983$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…e23cbacked Yes | 46c | 1,981$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…def7backed No | 38c | 1,963$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 9c | 1,962$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 58c | 1,926$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.6 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed No | 21c | 1,918$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 23c | 1,918$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…b0f4backed Yes | 67c | 1,902$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1eb…c51dbacked No | 26c | 1,757$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 67c | 1,740$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.44 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 9c | 1,700$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 4c | 1,685$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…0ba9backed Yes | 50c | 1,671$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 34c | 1,600$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.46 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked No | 55c | 1,547$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…2ad8backed No | 28c | 1,545$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cb…6e8fbacked No | 40c | 1,520$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe140…78d4backed No | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c594backed Yes | 68c | 1,496$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd1…8663backed Yes | 70c | 1,380$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 46c | 1,376$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.56 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked No | 10c | 1,340$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…3cc6backed Yes | 55c | 1,340$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…6630backed Yes | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 9c | 1,299$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.23 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a82…0c36backed No | 57c | 1,233$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 28c | 1,208$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.63 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…6a2dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,200$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…1a62backed No | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.