AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5be05591f1df9fd0da226f6b8629c3686a972114e235740abcf8aa5101eb051
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 9c | 9,979$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.77 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 5,233$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.52 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 15c | 5,028$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.52 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8160…e1a0backed Yes | 18c | 1,713$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 18c | 1,678$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,324$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.39 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Yes | 37c | 1,160$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 17c | 1,024$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.88 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…3075backed No | 78c | 1,000$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…5348backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 11c | 958.09$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 6c | 914.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ce…22e5backed Yes | 25c | 847.65$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 792.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 1c | 770.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…815bbacked Yes | 8c | 714.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +266.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 20c | 700$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 17c | 618.8$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.82 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 4c | 615.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cb3fbacked No | 80c | 599.98$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +162.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 577.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 17c | 570.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda45…5fa4backed Yes | 16c | 544.83$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276e…ac88backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 27c | 478.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.97 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 407.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c50…b825backed Yes | 38c | 392.89$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 8c | 390.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 350$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 29c | 346.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 70c | 345$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 14c | 342.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 63c | 328.82$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.01 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 62c | 324$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 9c | 280.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f3…6517backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 19c | 260$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 258$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf785…80f0backed Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc855…0eebbacked Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed Yes | 11c | 242.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723d…90c4backed Yes | 11c | 230$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 35c | 229.49$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b5…d5c6backed Yes | 14c | 223.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 18c | 220.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 18c | 220$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 5c | 219.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed Yes | 18c | 217.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 18c | 212.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked No | 73c | 211.84$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked Yes | 23c | 210$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe634…fae1backed Yes | 19c | 200.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…dd39backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 26c | 199.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…ea7ebacked No | 70c | 199.97$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked No | 73c | 199.22$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ab…8a17backed Yes | 14c | 184.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 26c | 180$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 15c | 166$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba0…64fabacked Yes | 7c | 163.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…e739backed Yes | 18c | 162.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…56b6backed Yes | 19c | 158.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…4ab1backed Yes | 19c | 157.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 14c | 155.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…8ce9backed No | 57c | 150$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 17c | 147.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 15c | 145.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 9c | 143.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b95…af88backed Yes | 7c | 142.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 13c | 135$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb5…8ab9backed Yes | 15c | 134.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7230…a3d2backed Yes | 20c | 133.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed Yes | 19c | 129.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 128.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes | 38c | 126.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…7f90backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…6e99backed Yes | 19c | 124.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…2a52backed Yes | 24c | 116.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 19c | 114.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes | 13c | 114.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…50e6backed Yes | 15c | 113.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd015…8a36backed Yes | 22c | 111.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c7…bdbbbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked Yes | 19c | 110.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4679…37e5backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 19c | 109.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Yes | 31c | 108.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…8864backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Yes | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa28c…ff0ebacked Yes | 20c | 100.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596d…1aadbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?this page
- Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?No won
- Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.