AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e4dccd37c5ff002a8896ab8a5003331f83be9f2dc1bbafc4856235cb0a5eedc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 8c | 4,423$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.45 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 51c | 2,209$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.53 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…eba6backed No | 43c | 1,508$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 1,503$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.82 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 44c | 1,419$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed No | 47c | 920.83$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 55c | 775.28$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 45c | 691.46$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.83 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed Yes | 69c | 689.18$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.52 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 35c | 663.18$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.74 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…6e8cbacked No | 68c | 635.78$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 40c | 622.76$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 62c | 581.43$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.43 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 550.6$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.88 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 12c | 471.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 64c | 443.44$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3f…699abacked No | 44c | 410$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +304.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x043e…1e20backed No | 80c | 376.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 376.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 50c | 366$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 39c | 358.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 38c | 350$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 36c | 324.31$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.87 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed No | 59c | 320.29$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 46c | 320$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.9 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 12c | 312.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 51c | 300.08$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.04 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 10c | 298.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…57d5backed Yes | 51c | 294.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 237.54$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.65 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ab…cda4backed Yes | 5c | 225.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b5…d5c6backed No | 42c | 223.83$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked No | 44c | 221.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 73c | 221.53$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 37c | 210.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.08 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 58c | 206.02$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.49 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…36d4backed Yes | 58c | 202.5$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c2…12e7backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…6afabacked No | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…a510backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…cf15backed No | 41c | 197.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 41c | 196.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 36c | 163.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 161.75$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa341…2154backed Yes | 15c | 147.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 54c | 140.06$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed Yes | 27c | 137.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 52c | 136.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf803…f84cbacked No | 53c | 133.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c58…0725backed Yes | 53c | 121.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 51c | 121.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…ecfabacked No | 36c | 120$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e14…7c43backed Yes | 25c | 117.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 50c | 115.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6078…dbaebacked Yes | 56c | 100.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 34c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…1d31backed Yes | 15c | 87.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Yes | 54c | 84.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…7ae7backed Yes | 46c | 82.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…f93ebacked Yes | 62c | 80.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa3…4899backed No | 64c | 78.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Yes | 45c | 76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…2545backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0230…45b2backed No | 45c | 69.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 58c | 68.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 42c | 66.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39bc…f994backed No | 42c | 66.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 75c | 65.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 62c | 65.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cea…0685backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6258…fa6bbacked No | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…ab8abacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…2f49backed No | 37c | 57.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x101e…d4dabacked No | 50c | 55.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…8b29backed Yes | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 49c | 53.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e5…7087backed No | 32c | 53.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…e682backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495a…f3a7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed5…f2e7backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x723d…90c4backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 48c | 48.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…b007backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 23c | 45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…1a2cbacked No | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…b9eabacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…417dbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?this page
- Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?No won
- Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.