TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6c58…0725

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
26
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: AI, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category AI at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.58
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.99
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+220.4%+$596.04
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.49
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.49
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.75
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+123%+$218.27
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.33
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.06
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$690Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+71.8%+$495.45
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+69.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.18
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$241.32
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$335.61
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$62.86
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+111.5%+$24.87
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+206.7%+$23.25
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.15
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+34.4%+$62.42
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.71
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.54
All 10 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.17
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+173.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+173.2%+$24.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.33
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.