AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d2cffc256f006db518438552bff4e09310ef84e2a728fdf4f17995f917c6210
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,578$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.77 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 5c | 7,382$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.84 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 12c | 7,020$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.09 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 6,518$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.48 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 5,512$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 4c | 5,087$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.61 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 2c | 4,118$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 7c | 3,556$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.37 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cde…930abacked Yes | 3c | 2,879$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…8a3cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,856$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,095$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.63 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74e…e3a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,875$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,074$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 11c | 1,074$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.97 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,003$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 8c | 926.47$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 6c | 899.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4733…8738backed Yes | 5c | 845.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 5c | 815.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 809.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa684…016bbacked Yes | 10c | 790.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 767.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 706.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d3…daffbacked Yes | 6c | 701.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 685.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 5c | 606.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 16c | 605$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 5c | 583.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…9f18backed Yes | 18c | 513.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.13 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c41…febebacked Yes | 4c | 469.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 454.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x333c…bff3backed Yes | 4c | 362.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 10c | 324.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed7f…582bbacked Yes | 17c | 290.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c31…1b6bbacked Yes | 5c | 263.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 13c | 258.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 250.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 16c | 240.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 5c | 237.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…42adbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c58…0725backed Yes | 24c | 123.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebd2…1564backed Yes | 12c | 108.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 16c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes won
- Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.