AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbbce28be8e25e2aec0e170637554ad47421c7d912c3959e8b25aabea3e656b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $335,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $303,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 341 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc74a…f01bbacked No | 28c | 35,054$9,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,136.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +253.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…e658backed Yes | 38c | 14,743$5,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,621.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 38c | 10,413$3,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,922.99 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 33c | 9,307$3,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,223.36 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 38c | 9,212$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.91 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 51c | 7,847$4,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,017.71 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 50c | 7,506$3,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,731.61 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 58c | 7,505$4,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,383.41 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 65c | 7,090$4,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,605.63 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 65c | 6,120$3,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,972.37 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 53c | 4,739$2,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,503.06 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…294cbacked Yes | 50c | 3,983$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,992.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 45c | 3,598$1,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.07 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 53c | 3,534$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.34 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes | 78c | 3,426$2,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,657.06 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 46c | 2,917$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.09 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed No | 74c | 2,717$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…9274backed Yes | 55c | 2,700$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Yes | 19c | 2,594$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 40c | 2,288$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.65 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…ac80backed No | 72c | 2,079$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 1,959$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.67 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 18c | 1,904$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.06 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,873$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…ddd8backed Yes | 28c | 1,764$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 77c | 1,597$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.14 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 51c | 1,492$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.46 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes | 47c | 1,478$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.6 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 1,379$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.9 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c31…1b6bbacked Yes | 54c | 1,372$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…64a7backed Yes | 61c | 1,340$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…f295backed No | 43c | 1,299$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…4d17backed Yes | 18c | 1,297$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.87 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd905…ad7cbacked Yes | 61c | 1,257$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752d…d335backed Yes | 32c | 1,233$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 69c | 1,179$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -68%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 70c | 1,135$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.96 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 43c | 1,125$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.14 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10a8…8629backed No | 44c | 1,124$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 54c | 1,117$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…5db4backed No | 72c | 1,100$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,074$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Yes | 75c | 1,065$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…4eedbacked No | 53c | 1,010$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac54…9897backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed Yes | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdc…28c7backed No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Yes | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa77…0069backed Yes | 58c | 993.51$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 60c | 958.21$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.07 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 75c | 899.19$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.19 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…6b9abacked Yes | 27c | 868.73$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 18c | 838.65$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.28 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed Yes | 21c | 824$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 61c | 753.64$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.89 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 74c | 750$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.5 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 69c | 748.88$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.32 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed Yes | 17c | 744.97$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…de48backed Yes | 70c | 700$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed Yes | 50c | 700$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 40c | 699.51$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.15 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 55c | 698.68$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.81 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaf…7affbacked Yes | 21c | 691.28$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 6c | 666.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 642.73$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.6 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 53c | 640.43$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.89 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 75c | 590.9$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.56 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked Yes | 10c | 558.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 60c | 555$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…4e0abacked No | 27c | 537.85$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90f…b6dabacked No | 28c | 537.79$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +86%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0afb…80f2backed No | 74c | 537.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…5510backed Yes | 20c | 510.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 47c | 500.27$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.04 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 71c | 500$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…6fbabacked Yes | 19c | 473.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf3…5c30backed No | 68c | 441$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429f…42f8backed Yes | 68c | 440$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 423.84$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.56 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed No | 52c | 420.71$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.62 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 36c | 414.45$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.21 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…7343backed Yes | 64c | 411.25$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked No | 25c | 407.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.27 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 400$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.67 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…28e9backed No | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa058…d9f7backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 73c | 400$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 385.9$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.75 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 72c | 377.46$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.98 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3b…3673backed Yes | 53c | 373.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…36d1backed Yes | 17c | 350$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…1acdbacked Yes | 59c | 350$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 48c | 338.26$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.29 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 43c | 337.42$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.51 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86b…9371backed Yes | 62c | 333.23$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 67c | 326.93$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.86 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 55c | 323.65$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.99 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…c6b2backed Yes | 56c | 292.17$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes won
- Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.