TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xec73…4e0a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
75
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: South American Leagues, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category South American Leagues at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 34.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Mirra Andreevabacked Mirra Andreeva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+150.6%+$34.2
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Marta Kostyuk vs Ann Libacked Ann Li · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Oeiras 3: Jaime Faria vs Roman Safiullinbacked Roman Safiullin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$21.26
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauffbacked Karolina Muchova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$49.17
Oeiras 3: Rebecca Sramkova vs Petra Marcinkobacked Rebecca Sramkova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.2
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Iryna Shymanovich vs Tatjana Mariabacked Tatjana Maria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$14.11
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolobacked Francisco Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.25
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolinabacked Linda Noskova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.8
Wuning 2: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Charles Broombacked Buvaysar Gadamauri · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.73
Busan: Sho Shimabukuro vs Leandro Riedibacked Leandro Riedi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$19.01
Wuning 2: Fajing Sun vs Giles Husseybacked Giles Hussey · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.21
Wuning 2: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Leo Vithoontienbacked Leo Vithoontien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.36
Busan: August Holmgren vs Alexis Galarneaubacked August Holmgren · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+34.8%+$7.19
Wuning 2: Sergey Fomin vs Moerani Bouzigebacked Moerani Bouzige · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.41
Busan: Liam Broady vs Ilya Ivashkabacked Ilya Ivashka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.63
Wuning 2: Justin Boulais vs Giles Husseybacked Justin Boulais · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.98
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L-5.2wins-0.44per pick52cpaid-88.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+40.5%+$16.32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.37
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.22
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$301.91
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.82
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.93
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$293.37
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.94
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.29
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.88
All 12 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)backed Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$9.14
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.47
Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astrosbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.34
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$12.38
Texas Rangers vs. Athleticsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.01
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.31
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.07
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$29.87
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$41.21
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankeesbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.59
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.15
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+63.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+418.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kraken vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$11.27
Canucks vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+35.6%+$3.78
Kraken vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$16.31
Sharks vs. Blackhawksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.99
All 4 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffsbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+37%+$73.97
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$392.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 1 Winnerbacked MODUS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$36.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$17.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.