Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f63a73867984946c0583b22d39e70a0e72ac4316c6f8a432109b39211c08901

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: MODUSof Inner Circle, MODUS
Resolved: Apr 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,161
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,354

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,161 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd3b0…329ebacked MODUS	43c	2,801$1,212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,588.93	802	56%449 W · 353 L	+22.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Inner Circle	55c	2,498$1,363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,363	476	50.8%242 W · 234 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Inner Circle	47c	2,165$1,007 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,007.05	517	51.3%265 W · 252 L	+21.8wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked MODUS	68c	2,131$1,449 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$681.88	84	47.6%40 W · 44 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked Inner Circle	57c	1,543$879 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$879.47	169	45%76 W · 93 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MODUS	53c	1,088$575 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$512.57	1,066	57%608 W · 458 L	+52.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed MODUS	62c	804.05$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303.84	265	50.6%134 W · 131 L	+12.0wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed MODUS	36c	792.86$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$504.31	159	46.5%74 W · 85 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MODUS	45c	718.11$325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$392.66	1,577	43.9%692 W · 885 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MODUS	41c	697$286 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$411.26	1,521	37.9%576 W · 945 L	-57.8wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x953f…15e6backed Inner Circle	58c	665.1$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.48	150	64.7%97 W · 53 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed MODUS	51c	552.18$284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$268.07	470	46.6%219 W · 251 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Inner Circle	62c	515.54$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.73	1,272	45%572 W · 700 L	-40.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93c8…adffbacked MODUS	45c	470.97$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.21	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Inner Circle	58c	457.79$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.84	450	46.7%210 W · 240 L	-11.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Inner Circle	59c	431.68$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.1	1,164	47.2%549 W · 615 L	-29.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked MODUS	70c	411.58$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.48	670	43.3%290 W · 380 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked MODUS	38c	409.44$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	1,275	33.5%427 W · 848 L	-15.6wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1448…b30bbacked MODUS	33c	325.44$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.2	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Inner Circle	60c	317.6$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.56	507	69.2%351 W · 156 L	+33.7wins	+0.07per pick	63cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed Inner Circle	60c	287.92$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.75	293	47.4%139 W · 154 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7627…4404backed Inner Circle	33c	286.53$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.15	148	32.4%48 W · 100 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Inner Circle	60c	246.31$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.27	2,828	43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L	-39.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed MODUS	40c	237.08$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.25	132	28.8%38 W · 94 L	-9.7wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-40%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Inner Circle	56c	218.14$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.11	551	47.5%262 W · 289 L	+22.3wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3304…8313backed Inner Circle	68c	217.14$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.1	80	50%40 W · 40 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82ef…840bbacked MODUS	46c	211.04$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.29	90	58.9%53 W · 37 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda47…c2e9backed MODUS	53c	209.78$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.04	118	58.5%69 W · 49 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x984b…88fbbacked Inner Circle	68c	204.78$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.25	51	60.8%31 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41a6…fbadbacked MODUS	44c	197.65$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.37	69	49.3%34 W · 35 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Inner Circle	59c	195.08$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.1	189	52.9%100 W · 89 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MODUS	38c	193.99$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.02	2,012	44.2%889 W · 1,123 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Inner Circle	56c	181.82$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.82	953	42.2%402 W · 551 L	-20.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Inner Circle	67c	176.45$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.52	338	67.8%229 W · 109 L	+16.0wins	+0.05per pick	63cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Inner Circle	57c	167.17$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.29	866	59.6%516 W · 350 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed MODUS	44c	165.53$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.7	131	52.7%69 W · 62 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Inner Circle	55c	161.99$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.48	1,797	55.8%1,003 W · 794 L	+37.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked MODUS	44c	159.62$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.39	367	59.1%217 W · 150 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked MODUS	35c	152.06$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.55	372	23.1%86 W · 286 L	-38.2wins	-0.10per pick	33cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7ebc…c639backed Inner Circle	35c	136.43$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.06	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Inner Circle	58c	134.22$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.85	131	45%59 W · 72 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Inner Circle	31c	119.88$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.43	772	56.5%436 W · 336 L	+30.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed MODUS	43c	119.68$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.97	121	36.4%44 W · 77 L	-8.7wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Inner Circle	54c	108.04$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.34	735	54.7%402 W · 333 L	-3.5wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed MODUS	40c	107.95$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.32	500	53%265 W · 235 L	+14.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed MODUS	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	675	55%371 W · 304 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06d9…7cfbbacked Inner Circle	62c	97.07$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.08	201	51.2%103 W · 98 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed MODUS	42c	84.64$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.09	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65cf…5cdebacked Inner Circle	72c	84.6$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.29	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.9wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22d6…b7b5backed Inner Circle	59c	82.66$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.77	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-3.8wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x127e…cca1backed Inner Circle	57c	81.29$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.02	461	50.8%234 W · 227 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Inner Circle	51c	79.38$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.84	430	49.1%211 W · 219 L	+15.8wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11ea…594fbacked Inner Circle	62c	78.81$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.86	159	42.8%68 W · 91 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked MODUS	45c	66.88$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.63	209	54.5%114 W · 95 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Inner Circle	45c	62$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.86	653	37.2%243 W · 410 L	-15.1wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Inner Circle	66c	59.76$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.44	79	54.4%43 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Inner Circle	32c	55.73$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.75	1,034	16.3%169 W · 865 L	-158.1wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-51%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x387e…ca5dbacked Inner Circle	63c	54.01$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.25	118	57.6%68 W · 50 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec73…4e0abacked MODUS	32c	53.76$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.56	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.68per pick	32cpaid	+212.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Inner Circle	39c	52.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	350	32.3%113 W · 237 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked Inner Circle	55c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.3	280	50%140 W · 140 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Inner Circle	35c	49.28$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.25	546	48.5%265 W · 281 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed MODUS	42c	49.13$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.5	504	44%222 W · 282 L	-7.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0c0…2489backed MODUS	43c	44.92$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.6	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.57per pick	43cpaid	+132.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked MODUS	35c	42.28$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.51	774	58.5%453 W · 321 L	+75.1wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS	40c	41.71$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.86	2,378	47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L	+15.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…0c2abacked MODUS	69c	40.18$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.48	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Inner Circle	38c	39.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.15	245	18.8%46 W · 199 L	-31.2wins	-0.13per pick	32cpaid	-46%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Inner Circle	60c	39.53$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.72	463	54.6%253 W · 210 L	-8.0wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed MODUS	62c	35.24$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.46	86	41.9%36 W · 50 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked Inner Circle	56c	35.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.74	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-6.5wins	-0.23per pick	52cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x2a00…e8e7backed Inner Circle	57c	34.44$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.48	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-5.2wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7f3a…e03dbacked Inner Circle	61c	32.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.82	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	+63.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Inner Circle	61c	31.8$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.53	254	57.9%147 W · 107 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked MODUS	75c	28$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7	690	33.3%230 W · 460 L	-27.9wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Inner Circle	56c	25.65$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.36	1,260	49.7%626 W · 634 L	+21.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed MODUS	51c	23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.32	745	49.3%367 W · 378 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Inner Circle	68c	21.64$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.71	386	53.9%208 W · 178 L	+10.1wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed MODUS	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	204	48%98 W · 106 L	+12.7wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsInner Circle won
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 2 WinnerInner Circle won
Game Handicap: IC (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5)MODUS won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event