Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c843f84149e380d215b1e53ddc4affe48267148b4ab731feaf0061b6feeeb9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Inner Circle, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed MODUS | 51c | 1,829$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.51 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Inner Circle | 60c | 1,646$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.06 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked MODUS | 37c | 1,365$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.42 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Inner Circle | 49c | 1,287$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.8 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Inner Circle | 53c | 992.83$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.83 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MODUS | 35c | 893.32$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.66 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1994…d63cbacked Inner Circle | 63c | 873.35$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.1 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Inner Circle | 58c | 860.8$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.54 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed MODUS | 41c | 824.78$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.05 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked MODUS | 31c | 791.58$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.52 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Inner Circle | 55c | 718.99$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.29 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed MODUS | 42c | 651.05$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.32 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Inner Circle | 52c | 645.93$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.74 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…7a6abacked MODUS | 48c | 633.41$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -75%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked MODUS | 2c | 593.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed MODUS | 29c | 485.25$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.64 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed MODUS | 43c | 449.21$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.16 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Inner Circle | 45c | 415.06$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.09 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Inner Circle | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Inner Circle | 60c | 396.89$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.91 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked Inner Circle | 54c | 379.18$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.66 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…840bbacked MODUS | 54c | 362.3$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.45 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984b…88fbbacked Inner Circle | 51c | 325.15$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.32 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed MODUS | 50c | 302.13$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed MODUS | 50c | 292.42$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.48 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…4c16backed Inner Circle | 47c | 287.8$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.23 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed Inner Circle | 50c | 257.23$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.36 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a6…0529backed Inner Circle | 69c | 236.38$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked MODUS | 43c | 229.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked MODUS | 30c | 228.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed MODUS | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed MODUS | 40c | 193.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS | 45c | 171.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed MODUS | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Inner Circle | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Inner Circle | 60c | 149.51$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Inner Circle | 57c | 145.46$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked MODUS | 49c | 109.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS | 40c | 108.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…c639backed MODUS | 47c | 103$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Inner Circle | 63c | 102.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Inner Circle | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked MODUS | 30c | 85.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed MODUS | 32c | 75.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Inner Circle | 68c | 73.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…dc17backed Inner Circle | 80c | 71.33$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 73 | 76.7%56 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed MODUS | 42c | 57.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked MODUS | 47c | 57.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Inner Circle | 54c | 55.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Inner Circle | 55c | 53.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49b…a829backed Inner Circle | 68c | 53.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…c252backed Inner Circle | 79c | 50.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Inner Circle | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Inner Circle | 44c | 49.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Inner Circle | 56c | 45.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…f488backed MODUS | 47c | 35.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Inner Circle | 59c | 33.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 254 | 57.9%147 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5653…30cbbacked MODUS | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…c777backed Inner Circle | 56c | 31.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Inner Circle | 57c | 29.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed MODUS | 47c | 29.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked MODUS | 42c | 27.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Inner Circle | 53c | 25.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Inner Circle | 52c | 24.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed MODUS | 44c | 23.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…a9c7backed MODUS | 48c | 21.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 1 WinnerMODUS won
- Game Handicap: IC (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5)MODUS won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.