TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,689
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,689 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x861a…1f15backed Over50c47,936$23,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,969.264259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under49c27,039$13,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,237.3265050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c20,322$10,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,011.091,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over54c9,708$5,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,465.881,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under50c4,449$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,224.741,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Under47c2,710$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.6336649.2%180 W · 186 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Over54c2,610$1,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.388353%44 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Under46c2,222$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.11,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under48c1,982$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.155,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16e5…6373backed Under51c1,729$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.918658.1%50 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Over53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.9944451.1%227 W · 217 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under48c1,100$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.716,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over53c1,028$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.391,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Over53c999.97$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.994146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under50c965.52$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.7667849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Under47c927.83$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.088360.2%50 W · 33 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeea4…efe6backed Under46c915.33$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over35c821.87$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.872,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Under51c799.68$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.8325751.8%133 W · 124 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over54c775.93$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.151,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Over49c775.31$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.4147350.7%240 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Under51c761.25$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.2430844.2%136 W · 172 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under46c757.59$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.4927249.3%134 W · 138 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Under50c732.93$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.4718553.5%99 W · 86 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under50c701.32$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.611,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Under50c649.9$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.9512049.2%59 W · 61 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Under50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506662.1%41 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Under50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506749.3%33 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b6…57bebacked Under50c485$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.5825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over50c388$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19494034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Under47c356.44$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.5311451.8%59 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over50c354.13$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.756,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Over53c344.02$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.691,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Under50c343.37$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.694864.6%31 W · 17 L+7.3wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+35.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Under47c328.04$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.2948850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa79d…ee14backed Under51c289.66$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.733839.5%15 W · 23 L-5.9wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Under50c281.13$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.781,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Over54c256.14$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8212656.3%71 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Over54c254.09$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.9639351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Over54c254.09$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.9634452.6%181 W · 163 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over54c254.01$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.9245246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over54c250.12$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.061,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over54c250.06$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.031,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under55c217.15$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.436,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Over22c210.62$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.8853261.8%329 W · 203 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaab0…6364backed Under47c206$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.821376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+48.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Over45c199.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.9922849.1%112 W · 116 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over54c180.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8394648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Over55c176.91$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6122753.3%121 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4d…4c76backed Under52c170.59$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.713552.6%71 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Over49c163.45$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3678052.2%407 W · 373 L+22.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3aa1…baa1backed Under51c161.9$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.572343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Under46c145.14$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7618553%98 W · 87 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under78c145$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1867742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Under45c128.44$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.814340.6%58 W · 85 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under51c128.43$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0330750.2%154 W · 153 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Over53c116.51$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.811,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed Under47c114.62$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.872548%12 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over46c108.78$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.269,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99c5…03eabacked Under46c104.46$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under29c96.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1747743%205 W · 272 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac9…f5ddbacked Under53c91.11$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.68949.4%44 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Over54c90.04$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4252449%257 W · 267 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6687…b9ddbacked Over54c90.04$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.428752.9%46 W · 41 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over54c90.04$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4215552.3%81 W · 74 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Over54c90.04$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4212750.4%64 W · 63 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec73…4e0abacked Over54c89.59$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.211136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36f9…5445backed Over55c88.45$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.815858.2%92 W · 66 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Over47c82.34$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8731046.5%144 W · 166 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac24…576ebacked Under47c73.81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6922948%110 W · 119 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Under51c69.81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4919934.2%68 W · 131 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eae…eab7backed Over46c58.31$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c76…2632backed Under55c56.19$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.724554.7%134 W · 111 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under50c54.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.042,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24d7…3ed2backed Over55c53.07$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.881650%8 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b4…168fbacked Over45c52.21$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.81683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick41cpaid+102.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Under78c51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7849942.9%214 W · 285 L-31.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under56c50.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.282,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f98…ec35backed Under52c49.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8213144.3%58 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Under50c49.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8522849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Under46c43.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0349649.8%247 W · 249 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7ff…55f2backed Under46c42.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9382…4ee3backed Over50c41.61$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8111658.6%68 W · 48 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe5…7936backed Under48c40.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3819248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x661f…098abacked Under47c40.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.953040%12 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c2b…e55dbacked Under47c40.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0275…596dbacked Under80c39.75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.636852.9%36 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Over54c38.94$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9137747.2%178 W · 199 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Over55c38.92$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5115351.6%79 W · 74 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Under52c37.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4213549.6%67 W · 68 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1352…3ecabacked Under54c36.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under51c35.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1512761.4%78 W · 49 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd281…d824backed Under46c34.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9710449%51 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Over54c33.23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2821153.6%113 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1434…d63bbacked Under51c30.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.432245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc816…7a20backed Over52c28.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.685251.9%27 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over50c27.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7228352.3%148 W · 135 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under51c27.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.866749.3%329 W · 338 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x533d…b579backed Over51c24.83$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.143729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over52c22.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.