MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6952f688d5725a996c05c1b4fc99ddb5b3d75a9509fb770d994ea6605934ec1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 59c | 1,498$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.86 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 59c | 1,409$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.29 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 34c | 1,187$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.69 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Under | 57c | 910.8$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.15 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…cddbbacked Under | 59c | 888.34$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 841.07$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.2 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 62c | 793.99$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.01 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 41c | 750.28$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.63 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 16c | 570.58$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 436.17$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.37 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Under | 66c | 328$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.32 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 41c | 268.63$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.49 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 41c | 204.86$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.83 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 10c | 189.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 58c | 176.47$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.35 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 57c | 98.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 12c | 87.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 14c | 82.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Under | 61c | 79.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 41c | 73.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 43c | 69.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 56c | 62.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…57a9backed Over | 39c | 57.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 35c | 55.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 53c | 46.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…3e48backed Under | 57c | 44.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 41c | 42.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 39c | 37.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 44c | 36.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 51c | 33.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 40c | 33.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 42c | 30.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 73c | 29.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 29.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6e…326cbacked Over | 43c | 26.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +151.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x270f…5e39backed Over | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5736…fdbabacked Over | 42c | 24.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 41c | 24.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 60c | 23.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 60c | 22.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -10.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 60c | 18.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…8617backed Under | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh PiratesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 14.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 15.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.