TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nuggets, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$538,238
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$624,269

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $538,238 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 473 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1117…3532backed Timberwolves49c44,672$21,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,941.981,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Nuggets48c39,731$19,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,547.3460351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Timberwolves47c37,810$17,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,770.6828643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Timberwolves47c31,918$15,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,001.3431644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Nuggets53c29,971$15,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,086.531,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed Nuggets54c26,029$14,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,975.365253.8%28 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Nuggets53c22,736$12,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,686.1310747.7%51 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Timberwolves46c21,693$9,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,978.7259347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac25…433fbacked Nuggets53c20,600$10,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,681.958038.8%31 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Timberwolves47c20,164$9,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,4774847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Nuggets53c17,850$9,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,389.641,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Nuggets50c16,221$8,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,152.581,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets51c14,694$7,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,135.054,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Timberwolves52c12,221$6,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,322.681,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Timberwolves50c11,402$5,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,700.91,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Nuggets53c11,293$5,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,307.5929650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Nuggets55c10,625$5,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,787.4520352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Nuggets53c9,168$4,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,308.9214556.6%82 W · 63 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2114…84c5backed Timberwolves47c8,240$3,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,872.815935.6%21 W · 38 L-8.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Nuggets53c7,774$4,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,653.9712056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed Timberwolves47c7,076$3,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,325.775843.1%25 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Timberwolves50c7,000$3,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,519.9972241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Timberwolves50c6,584$3,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,283.751,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Timberwolves41c6,410$2,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,627.911,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6070…7be3backed Timberwolves47c6,180$2,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,904.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Timberwolves48c6,113$2,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,911.441,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Nuggets49c5,360$2,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,736.0720744%91 W · 116 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…4088backed Timberwolves47c5,150$2,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,420.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Timberwolves51c5,027$2,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,554.211,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Nuggets50c4,993$2,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,496.4712745.7%58 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves49c4,127$2,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,007.188,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Timberwolves47c4,117$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.1224942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2734…6d9ebacked Timberwolves47c4,080$1,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,936.976144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x623b…8facbacked Nuggets49c3,610$1,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,853.32347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c0…25b8backed Timberwolves56c3,373$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.87757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Timberwolves47c3,338$1,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.939838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Timberwolves46c3,327$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.421,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves46c3,318$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.054,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf7…bf20backed Timberwolves54c3,245$1,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,738.54955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa686…5b61backed Nuggets55c3,186$1,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.712544%11 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb0…ca79backed Timberwolves48c3,122$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.735561.8%34 W · 21 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Nuggets53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77e8…6854backed Timberwolves46c2,715$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.85635.7%20 W · 36 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Timberwolves47c2,529$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.932846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Timberwolves47c2,344$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.6970246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves48c2,307$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.329,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Timberwolves54c2,282$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.652,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Timberwolves48c2,250$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.4973051.8%378 W · 352 L-2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cc…0b39backed Nuggets53c2,216$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.443953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Timberwolves48c2,172$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.311,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Nuggets47c2,064$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.6811034.5%38 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Nuggets52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96019937.2%74 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Nuggets48c1,941$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.7927455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Nuggets48c1,873$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.5513563%85 W · 50 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa6df…dda7backed Nuggets50c1,819$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.3824247.1%114 W · 128 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Timberwolves50c1,801$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.9144740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Timberwolves57c1,718$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.011540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Nuggets50c1,649$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.565349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Timberwolves50c1,552$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77640451.5%208 W · 196 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Nuggets50c1,533$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.4963746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Timberwolves50c1,487$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.3112850%64 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Nuggets54c1,474$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.8632351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Nuggets54c1,466$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.3890650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb12…70a7backed Timberwolves53c1,409$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.55666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+61.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Timberwolves47c1,382$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.365,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed Nuggets51c1,376$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.2221957.1%125 W · 94 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a5c…0fc2backed Timberwolves47c1,253$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.8410255.9%57 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Nuggets46c1,230$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.2748751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed Nuggets54c1,207$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.0714959.7%89 W · 60 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Timberwolves48c1,177$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.4852052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Timberwolves47c1,109$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.0416946.7%79 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacb6…e3bbbacked Nuggets53c1,100$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.076266.1%41 W · 21 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Timberwolves41c1,080$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.7521142.7%90 W · 121 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Nuggets51c1,050$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.5918444.6%82 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked Timberwolves46c1,044$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.2219745.2%89 W · 108 L-7.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Timberwolves48c1,009$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.421152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23ef…1d4cbacked Nuggets46c1,002$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.055337.7%20 W · 33 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-29%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Timberwolves50c1,000$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.6620647.6%98 W · 108 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Timberwolves50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010539%41 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Timberwolves50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013642.6%58 W · 78 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadd5…ce89backed Timberwolves49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Nuggets44c994.78$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.5945146.1%208 W · 243 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Nuggets50c985.98$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.3417249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Nuggets54c982.39$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.91,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Nuggets54c972.4$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.379549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed Nuggets50c970$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48513547.4%64 W · 71 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Nuggets50c965.89$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.8250954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc5b…5443backed Nuggets51c951.57$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.2712542.4%53 W · 72 L-11.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Nuggets53c916.79$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.8916050%80 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5303…83e6backed Nuggets53c876.45$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.936647%31 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a5b…a4d9backed Nuggets54c875.03$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.526358.7%37 W · 26 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Timberwolves49c827.54$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.498350.6%42 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6941…d614backed Timberwolves48c808.97$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.74450%22 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Nuggets54c777.92$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.8442348.5%205 W · 218 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Timberwolves50c776.25$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.7326336.5%96 W · 167 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Nuggets46c700$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37823845%107 W · 131 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Timberwolves22c692.68$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15320353.7%109 W · 94 L+21.5wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe8c4…0d90backed Timberwolves51c673.54$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.518645.3%39 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x052e…b5d2backed Timberwolves47c649.39$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.22633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2018…dfc5backed Nuggets54c630.26$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.923737.8%14 W · 23 L-6.1wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-30.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.