TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nuggets, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,249
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,399

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,249 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7002…395cbacked Nuggets60c1,736$1,042 inWon+$694.53250%16 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Timberwolves40c1,261$504 inLost-$504.3739842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Timberwolves47c480.15$227 inLost-$227.461,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Timberwolves43c300$129 inLost-$1298541.2%35 W · 50 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves40c271.9$109 inLost-$108.728,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Nuggets53c138.89$73 inWon+$65.4389850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf444…8bb9backed Nuggets53c135.69$72 inWon+$63.771942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Nuggets52c93.38$49 inWon+$44.8248957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb84e…c131backed Nuggets57c85.46$49 inWon+$36.753100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nuggets53c78.75$42 inWon+$36.82,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Timberwolves43c67.61$29 inLost-$29.0761638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Timberwolves46c48.38$22 inLost-$22.2537848.7%184 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cef…f81abacked Nuggets57c47.75$27 inWon+$20.531250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72bd…d37abacked Nuggets53c45.84$24 inWon+$21.544852.1%25 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Nuggets73c40.85$30 inWon+$11.031,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bff…c8a8backed Nuggets48c30.28$15 inWon+$15.743339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked Timberwolves50c30$15 inLost-$14.8526957.2%154 W · 115 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Timberwolves50c21.52$11 inLost-$10.6893148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.