NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb67b911f2fa881cf3bbc5a37d0b807af36cb738e4653c06a658d0bbfa7e2da4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Timberwolves | 52c | 49,138$25,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,551.8 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…433fbacked Nuggets | 48c | 30,000$14,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,599.99 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Nuggets | 48c | 19,474$9,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,126.24 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e5…7a2bbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 19,200$9,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,600 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Nuggets | 50c | 13,484$6,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,741.91 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Timberwolves | 50c | 11,879$5,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,904.96 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10c…0645backed Nuggets | 49c | 6,771$3,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,430.4 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf11…8399backed Nuggets | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 375 | 39.5%148 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Timberwolves | 50c | 3,293$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.28 | 662 | 48.5%321 W · 341 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f328backed Nuggets | 50c | 2,881$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.01 | 381 | 43%164 W · 217 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 2,270$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nuggets | 50c | 2,224$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.13 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e2…41b6backed Nuggets | 50c | 1,940$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…382dbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 1,048$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.37 | 163 | 35.6%58 W · 105 L | -12.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x623b…8facbacked Nuggets | 50c | 1,040$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Nuggets | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1a…e54ebacked Nuggets | 56c | 782.36$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.24 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…169bbacked Nuggets | 51c | 757.14$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.8 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Timberwolves | 48c | 633.05$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.36 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 49c | 572.3$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211d…3ab7backed Nuggets | 54c | 435.78$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.46 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Nuggets | 58c | 406.55$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.75 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Nuggets | 51c | 301.86$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.91 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Nuggets | 50c | 216.6$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.23 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Nuggets | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed Nuggets | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Nuggets | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…7552backed Nuggets | 56c | 173.81$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 141 | 55.3%78 W · 63 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Timberwolves | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 561 | 54.5%306 W · 255 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Nuggets | 50c | 124$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Nuggets | 61c | 115.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked Nuggets | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 126 | 37.3%47 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…16e6backed Timberwolves | 50c | 97.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Timberwolves | 50c | 97.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Timberwolves | 50c | 97.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…65a4backed Timberwolves | 50c | 97.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e52…6577backed Timberwolves | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Nuggets | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Timberwolves | 53c | 85.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Nuggets | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Nuggets | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Nuggets | 45c | 83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 266 | 39.8%106 W · 160 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Timberwolves | 50c | 77.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Timberwolves | 51c | 69.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 206 | 47.6%98 W · 108 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Nuggets | 45c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Nuggets | 45c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 138 | 37.7%52 W · 86 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Timberwolves | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Nuggets | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nuggets | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Nuggets | 45c | 48.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | +16.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Nuggets | 55c | 43.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Nuggets | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 519 | 46.8%243 W · 276 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Nuggets | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Nuggets | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Nuggets | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 234 | 41.5%97 W · 137 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Nuggets | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Timberwolves | 46c | 30.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4c…b7b8backed Nuggets | 50c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Nuggets | 50c | 26.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Nuggets | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked Nuggets | 52c | 23.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nuggets | 45c | 22.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Timberwolves | 52c | 21.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Timberwolves | 51c | 21.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…8959backed Nuggets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Cameron Johnson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Timberwolves vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 244.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.