TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 113.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,691
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,586

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,691 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaca2…b9a1backed Over52c14,829$7,712 inWon+$7,117.5432846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Under48c4,844$2,325 inLost-$2,325.1217042.4%72 W · 98 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Under48c4,040$1,939 inLost-$1,939.152842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Under48c2,906$1,395 inLost-$1,395.0715849.4%78 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under48c2,000$960 inLost-$96050346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb002…103dbacked Under48c242.2$116 inLost-$116.266845.6%31 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Under47c197.14$92 inLost-$92.3276247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68e…85e5backed Under55c177.51$97 inLost-$97.29450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under48c100$48 inLost-$481,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f7…c7a2backed Under49c98.13$48 inLost-$48.483638.9%14 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under30c79.83$24 inLost-$23.951,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Over50c60.1$30 inWon+$30.0537665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over51c60$31 inWon+$29.423549.4%116 W · 119 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Under48c52.36$25 inLost-$25.1340546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbc…2b18backed Under49c50$25 inLost-$24.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Over41c50$21 inWon+$29.540440.1%162 W · 242 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over43c46$20 inWon+$26.2278639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Under48c36.94$18 inLost-$17.7355444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.