TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,306
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,220

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,306 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cb…28adbacked Under50c3,852$1,940 inWon+$1,911.7516846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over50c2,616$1,308 inLost-$1,307.979,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over49c1,277$624 inLost-$623.971,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under58c630.79$366 inWon+$264.931,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Over48c628.79$299 inLost-$299.2517249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Over42c424$178 inLost-$178.0893148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under49c177.4$87 inWon+$90.472,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over48c169.48$82 inLost-$81.848,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce7a…fef0backed Under58c135.04$78 inWon+$57.123056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over50c108.94$55 inLost-$54.713,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under49c96.94$48 inWon+$49.441,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under53c96.38$51 inWon+$45.351,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under50c94.89$47 inWon+$47.452,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over51c53$27 inLost-$27.031,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Over49c50$24 inLost-$24.2889850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under46c50$23 inWon+$271,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x665e…7291backed Over31c46.38$14 inLost-$14.383429.4%10 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2494…17b3backed Under49c39.57$19 inWon+$20.183751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb171…39eebacked Over52c37.35$19 inLost-$19.42616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under49c32.37$16 inWon+$16.511,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…97b3backed Under47c25.05$12 inWon+$13.2821338%81 W · 132 L-12.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Over51c24.97$13 inLost-$12.7771752%373 W · 344 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0636…b869backed Over49c20.41$10 inLost-$10520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.