TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nuggets, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,909
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,132

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,909 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc699…7961backed Timberwolves21c6,293$1,331 inLost-$1,331.4320843.8%91 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nuggets79c3,758$2,969 inWon+$789.252,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Nuggets79c2,422$1,902 inWon+$520.5519246.4%89 W · 103 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Timberwolves25c1,985$500 inLost-$499.9917249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets76c1,633$1,241 inWon+$391.968,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Timberwolves22c361.59$79 inLost-$78.533,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x763c…25b2backed Nuggets79c261.66$207 inWon+$54.171723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Timberwolves12c204.37$24 inLost-$23.6645445.2%205 W · 249 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Nuggets75c123.07$92 inWon+$30.7761151.4%314 W · 297 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Nuggets75c112.45$84 inWon+$28.1144347.2%209 W · 234 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2cf…9a91backed Timberwolves53c72.54$38 inLost-$38.443161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Nuggets75c65.67$49 inWon+$16.4225348.6%123 W · 130 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nuggets56c52.79$30 inWon+$23.22,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Nuggets75c46.78$35 inWon+$11.737647.3%178 W · 198 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46d2…6805backed Nuggets76c43$33 inWon+$10.324447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Nuggets75c26.27$20 inWon+$6.5753348.4%258 W · 275 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Nuggets48c23.82$11 inWon+$12.471,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Nuggets74c21.79$16 inWon+$5.6693148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77e6…0ae1backed Nuggets78c19.74$15 inWon+$4.342454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6762…a9a5backed Nuggets74c19.69$15 inWon+$5.127382.2%60 W · 13 L+18.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+45.9%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.