TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,520
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,728

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,520 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6814…a9e7backed Over7c2,204$150 inLost-$150.373,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over13c1,768$221 inLost-$221.262,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Over5c1,462$70 inLost-$70.2619246.4%89 W · 103 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over12c767.77$95 inLost-$95.448,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Over19c655.97$125 inLost-$124.636817.6%12 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f9…5445backed Over8c295.25$24 inLost-$23.6216842.3%71 W · 97 L-12.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under72c185.25$133 inWon+$52.491,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7450…6f5fbacked Under56c101.96$57 inWon+$44.63922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.32per pick54cpaid-58%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Under79c98.74$78 inWon+$20.7261253.1%325 W · 287 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over48c96.88$47 inLost-$46.518850.5%95 W · 93 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under50c86.65$43 inWon+$43.2789850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6924…1455backed Under54c69.34$38 inWon+$31.695259.6%31 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Over46c47.34$22 inLost-$21.5861638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9857…a505backed Over37c38.76$14 inLost-$14.455633.9%19 W · 37 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over48c37.84$18 inLost-$18.1763746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6762…a9a5backed Over45c36.57$16 inLost-$16.37382.2%60 W · 13 L+18.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+45.9%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x20f3…2c21backed Over38c26.78$10 inLost-$10.062070%14 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+28.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under49c20.64$10 inWon+$10.63,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0636…b869backed Over62c16.13$10 inLost-$10520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Under74c15$11 inWon+$3.937753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.