TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,536,436
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,677,043

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,536,436 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,760 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed Yes40c172,811$68,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,751.8514821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No76c158,460$120,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,705.0337740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No39c105,505$41,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,856.6835631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0f…f0adbacked Yes53c75,000$39,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,749.731127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-61.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes1c70,043$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.310417.3%18 W · 86 L-13.7wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcdc5…afc9backed Yes0c70,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+251%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked No47c57,226$26,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,40716125.5%41 W · 120 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7cb…d447backed Yes60c57,000$34,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,379.943145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed Yes6c53,456$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,179.977413.5%10 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes62c52,879$32,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,605.1920143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes35c52,449$18,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,251.477943%34 W · 45 L+11.7wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+49.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes29c51,507$14,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,870.217018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x766e…21cdbacked Yes11c50,217$5,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,473.860%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf396…ed0dbacked No74c45,617$33,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,839.063151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes10c43,535$4,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,468.192917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes66c42,474$28,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,00920549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf4d…33edbacked No57c33,718$19,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,601.467946.8%37 W · 42 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes57c32,567$18,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,583.3651138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes62c32,313$20,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,031.977542.7%32 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes51c32,084$16,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,489.7816638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes32c30,174$9,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,738.315230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d56…4950backed No34c29,976$10,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,665.771656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.24per pick32cpaid+82.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x612b…6fddbacked No36c26,617$9,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,109.792152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes26c25,200$6,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,55213823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7494…680dbacked Yes24c24,867$5,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,941.39180%0 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x436f…2c7fbacked No50c23,950$11,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,027.144161%25 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked No71c23,714$16,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,799.8916553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x682e…70bdbacked No25c21,866$5,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,424.313745.9%17 W · 20 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+26.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0eaa…c521backed Yes61c21,375$12,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,963.081338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+269.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c85…31d4backed No28c20,506$5,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,792.7210226.5%27 W · 75 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No56c20,365$11,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,878.7917755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa771…42d1backed No46c20,202$9,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,833.252766.7%18 W · 9 L+6.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+47.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1d5c…55dfbacked No52c20,006$10,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,620.645040%20 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x131a…73f9backed Yes53c19,980$10,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,591.724835.4%17 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes5c18,768$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.7612629.4%37 W · 89 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed No21c18,593$3,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,744.3411527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8705…8354backed No39c18,212$7,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,167.386550.8%33 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+15.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfba6…1fcabacked Yes78c17,742$13,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,908.512429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-53.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3437…f8f3backed No68c17,677$12,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,673.5615953.5%85 W · 74 L+16.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x454e…36cbbacked No18c17,500$3,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,309.941258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes14c17,454$2,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,461.74588.6%5 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes62c17,329$10,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,735.974854.2%26 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes71c16,857$12,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,000.5111334.5%39 W · 74 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No23c16,827$3,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,025.3120823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No49c16,807$8,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,627.6440433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes5c16,667$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.781128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked Yes2c16,558$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.0712740.9%52 W · 75 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb425…c80bbacked Yes12c16,150$1,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,875.894420.5%9 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No70c16,061$11,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,790.2713850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed No40c14,885$5,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,887.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No32c14,747$4,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,048.8731241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes34c14,573$4,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,991.739825.5%25 W · 73 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes41c14,493$5,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,990.623040%12 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes49c14,481$7,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,165.046936.2%25 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc266…2f2fbacked Yes16c14,469$2,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,340.972623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd324…b23cbacked No37c14,415$5,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,089.2514944.3%66 W · 83 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No28c13,940$3,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,068.5935347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed No54c13,929$7,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,462.397356.2%41 W · 32 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes17c13,583$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,34030649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked No64c13,583$8,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,930.7615338.6%59 W · 94 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x473c…4f61backed No67c13,523$9,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,437.581457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No69c12,914$8,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,964.6719648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfde9…cc30backed Yes70c12,630$8,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,873.762634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes68c12,427$8,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,458.292864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No76c12,368$9,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,985.187462.2%46 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes23c12,315$2,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,880.949613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes51c12,258$6,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,192.915234.2%52 W · 100 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No27c12,161$3,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,932.735355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No34c11,570$3,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,600.333461.8%21 W · 13 L+8.4wins+0.25per pick37cpaid+48%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x8f8f…4844backed No56c11,412$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,012.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-40.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe8c…9e9ebacked No10c11,391$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,218.011369.2%9 W · 4 L+5.9wins+0.45per pick24cpaid+185.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x2a33…c087backed Yes6c11,122$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7003020%6 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc360…dbb2backed No77c10,900$8,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,523.996365.1%41 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked No38c10,891$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,791.4710528.6%30 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3201…6634backed No48c10,864$5,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,695.492055%11 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No26c10,743$2,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,921.6217530.9%54 W · 121 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09a5…caaabacked No71c10,685$7,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,136.8722100%22 W · 0 L+6.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd286…2322backed No16c10,578$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,934.951533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f4…bc90backed No51c10,311$5,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,026.822157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+13.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes19c10,116$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,918.9413441.8%56 W · 78 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes69c10,082$6,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,962.218845.5%40 W · 48 L+9.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+48.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfc16…d936backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+61.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002544%11 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+69.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No33c10,000$3,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,702.8626429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No10c9,792$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,842.5715629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes64c9,655$6,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,134.36238.7%24 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce85…ccd7backed No37c9,527$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,026.721747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked No28c9,513$2,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,807.2610945.9%50 W · 59 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No38c9,496$3,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,905.946221%13 W · 49 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-51.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes60c9,450$5,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,677.7517414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes58c9,433$5,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,446.877248.6%35 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ee…0e97backed No58c9,360$5,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,963.116045%27 W · 33 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No73c9,219$6,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,525.719930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b4…ac80backed No50c9,122$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,521.871573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+48.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No73c9,041$6,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.9229254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x01d1…12a4backed No11c8,976$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,996.535038%19 W · 31 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+99.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes53c8,846$4,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,696.4435921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1b2…a321backed No74c8,821$6,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,253.723540%14 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked No37c8,733$3,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,501.546532.3%21 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes37c8,688$3,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,201.7722529.8%67 W · 158 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.