TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$238,424
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$236,467

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,424 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed Yes20c24,191$4,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,941.1914821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes6c15,036$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.5214039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c13,486$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.782742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes15c11,005$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651.2322333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06de…cf4cbacked Yes0c10,773$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1521…f23ebacked No78c6,115$4,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.223764.9%24 W · 13 L+7.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+98.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No79c4,679$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.7521259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes4c3,318$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8521521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes19c3,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.3420749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9430…c2e6backed Yes17c2,960$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes9c2,179$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.3136227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes16c2,129$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.8410041%41 W · 59 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42035631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…a9d4backed No80c1,875$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.11656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ee…008cbacked Yes20c1,850$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37010023%23 W · 77 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes3c1,810$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.023103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes5c1,478$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8835921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x279c…2b82backed Yes5c1,331$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.486755.2%37 W · 30 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed No80c1,300$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2608159.3%48 W · 33 L+11.9wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+27.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x26cb…c558backed Yes11c1,179$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No78c1,136$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.0228126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016526.1%43 W · 122 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes2c788.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes3c720.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68e8…c464backed No78c641.03$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.031580%12 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c607.13$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes12c546.27$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.816936.2%25 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed Yes18c530$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.119449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11028750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10017737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24b9…f36ebacked No77c489.45$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.453237.5%12 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf343…06b1backed Yes15c421.85$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.16825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-65.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes25c399.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014227.5%39 W · 103 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65d4…b7e3backed No80c383.75$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.751283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick75cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9892…fd59backed Yes4c382.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152548%12 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-13.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes5c380$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.127047.8%129 W · 141 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc48…04edbacked Yes25c362$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904831.3%15 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked No75c312$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7816638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No80c311.86$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3717129.2%50 W · 121 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5123…2f31backed Yes19c301.82$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3360%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…e2c0backed No80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602572%18 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes21c284$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6412432.3%40 W · 84 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c64…007abacked Yes6c279.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed No80c251.25$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.257067.1%47 W · 23 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes22c233.26$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4586542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0799…725cbacked Yes22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadd5…ce89backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb56…c1bcbacked Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283735.1%13 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20ce…0716backed Yes5c189$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-85.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd297…2919backed No78c179.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.818167.9%55 W · 26 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes12c161.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7836035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7222627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81d1…4e30backed Yes19c149.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.513538.5%52 W · 83 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe31b…5f28backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205425.9%14 W · 40 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x123f…5143backed No79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.58966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No76c125$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.526756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e81…864bbacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb51c…502dbacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+68.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4892…e41dbacked Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid+55.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes17c82.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7567841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No76c78.75$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.756060%36 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked Yes16c71.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.812740.9%52 W · 75 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x022b…35aebacked No78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick61cpaid+45.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7be8…0f50backed No78c64.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.11540%6 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed No74c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffc…a5b7backed Yes20c58.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.65714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa086…0b37backed Yes27c54.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.77933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No80c54.37$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.878929.2%26 W · 63 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-41.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bf5…606bbacked No79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51070%7 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1028827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.58253.7%44 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bc1…43abbacked No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aae…cd88backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-62.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2712…eb71backed No78c31.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.955540%22 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d75…4e46backed No80c30.69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fcf…8907backed No80c26.53$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.758933.7%30 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+47.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514249.3%70 W · 72 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b78…5ce6backed No79c22.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.835265.4%34 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.410048%48 W · 52 L-12.5wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-26.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7eee…d321backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.