Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c13455a69bb77887fa900ea0e4d81da857c4bbb6a01d4cfc0a5c6637ad05683
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 4c | 31,349$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.54 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 21,985$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.1 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 4c | 12,000$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.1 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 3c | 10,411$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.67 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 7,260$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 4c | 6,762$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.33 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…97cdbacked Yes | 8c | 6,250$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked Yes | 8c | 2,594$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 0c | 2,586$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,010$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…afe9backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,738$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0c…fbb7backed Yes | 16c | 1,695$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.35 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8a…1e62backed Yes | 30c | 1,351$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be4…009abacked Yes | 4c | 1,280$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…aa34backed Yes | 2c | 1,176$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6f…8df2backed Yes | 4c | 1,012$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 2c | 951.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 2c | 775.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 5c | 670.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 11c | 461.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 5c | 450$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9138…0690backed Yes | 4c | 402$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 15c | 373.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 14c | 373.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 349.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…a144backed Yes | 7c | 318.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 12c | 296.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x703a…cf39backed Yes | 8c | 252.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 11c | 240$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Yes | 11c | 205$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 11c | 177$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed No | 74c | 58.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…0b29backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf30c…a7a7backed Yes | 23c | 49.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 36cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 61c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec4…226fbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa52…3607backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? this page
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.