TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$203,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$152,188

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,053 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes4c31,349$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.5411038.2%42 W · 68 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes1c21,985$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.149023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes4c12,000$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.135631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes3c10,411$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.6716638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes1c7,260$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.824712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes4c6,762$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.3313738%52 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd73…97cdbacked Yes8c6,250$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.91728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick12cpaid+47.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes1c6,000$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.54610.9%5 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes3c4,000$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10420823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b9e…154abacked Yes8c2,594$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.991442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032a…cf07backed Yes0c2,586$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82500%0 W · 50 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c2,100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.13103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c2,010$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.212742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb4…afe9backed Yes3c2,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.973234.4%11 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes3c1,738$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.435921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c0c…fbb7backed Yes16c1,695$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.352850%14 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes5c1,400$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7048630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f8a…1e62backed Yes30c1,351$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid+16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3be4…009abacked Yes4c1,280$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x884a…aa34backed Yes2c1,176$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205315.1%8 W · 45 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a6f…8df2backed Yes4c1,012$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.851612.5%2 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick3cpaid+92.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes2c951.34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.057943%34 W · 45 L+11.7wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+49.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes2c775.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5124224.4%59 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes5c670.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.24588.6%5 W · 53 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-73.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes11c461.91$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8530635.9%110 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes5c450$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.322333.2%74 W · 149 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9138…0690backed Yes4c402$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.072817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x279c…2b82backed Yes15c373.9$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.256755.2%37 W · 30 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes14c373.77$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2328427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes4c349.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1812325.2%31 W · 92 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+1.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x736e…a144backed Yes7c318.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes12c296.64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4712138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x703a…cf39backed Yes8c252.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204035%14 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes11c240$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.429027.9%81 W · 209 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Yes11c205$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.556845.6%31 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes11c177$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4718135.9%65 W · 116 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x848d…35e6backed No75c150$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.53438.2%13 W · 21 L-6.3wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-46.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283441.2%14 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2132…7657backed No74c58.26$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.084645.7%21 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1236626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24da…0b29backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.53070%21 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf30c…a7a7backed Yes23c49.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71163.6%7 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.28per pick36cpaid+109.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed No61c48$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7212046.7%56 W · 64 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+52.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524759.1%146 W · 101 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec4…226fbacked No79c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.252962.1%18 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+28.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa52…3607backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.44158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.