TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$149,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$162,320

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,051 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes6c15,193$867 inLost-$867.135631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd15b…cf6dbacked Yes8c12,474$1,000 inLost-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes0c8,178$16 inLost-$16.3613544.4%60 W · 75 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes3c7,578$227 inLost-$227.3314821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes0c7,000$15 inLost-$1524712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes5c4,989$263 inLost-$263.3616831%52 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb429…768abacked Yes1c2,100$11 inLost-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes3c1,970$64 inLost-$64.0320749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa53e…93e6backed Yes2c1,839$35 inLost-$35229.1%2 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+215.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes4c1,424$57 inLost-$56.9522627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3437…f8f3backed Yes6c999.99$63 inLost-$63.0715953.5%85 W · 74 L+16.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes3c799.95$24 inLost-$241976.6%13 W · 184 L-0.8wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes3c443.97$11 inLost-$11.148923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdccb…a7a0backed Yes6c400$24 inLost-$241353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe54d…fea1backed Yes7c333$23 inLost-$23.313046.7%14 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick29cpaid+49.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6a2c…80e5backed Yes7c300.05$20 inLost-$19.951526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5123…2f31backed Yes11c221$24 inLost-$23.7160%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e98…0491backed Yes8c133.56$11 inLost-$1160%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.