TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,312,007
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,525,650

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,312,007 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,622 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed Yes20c314,024$62,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,871.3414821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x5297…7b99backed Yes1c113,186$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.867613.2%10 W · 66 L-11.1wins-0.15per pick28cpaid+123.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5969…5bedbacked No47c67,426$31,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,801.68862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+57.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes6c52,024$3,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,224.598817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes16c47,168$7,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,523.5515230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No53c45,657$24,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,270.1735631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes65c44,568$29,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,106.095034%17 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x398d…c7c3backed Yes17c44,242$7,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,521.071723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-60.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c38,021$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0590%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No67c36,259$24,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,974.077462.2%46 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa771…42d1backed No69c34,998$24,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,955.272766.7%18 W · 9 L+6.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+47.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked No51c34,380$17,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,982.8216125.5%41 W · 120 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb698…976abacked Yes3c30,016$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.915712.3%7 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes20c29,940$5,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,866.5112629.4%37 W · 89 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c28,850$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.42742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10fc…9606backed No76c26,523$20,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,394.485058%29 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x746f…566dbacked Yes0c26,010$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.023748.6%18 W · 19 L+6.3wins+0.17per pick32cpaid+28.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes15c25,000$3,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,780.631241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7cb…d447backed Yes66c25,000$16,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,416.663145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf4d…33edbacked No74c21,983$16,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,742.097946.8%37 W · 42 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes11c21,845$2,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,437.495151%26 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+48.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes12c21,658$2,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,691.9251138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes14c20,468$2,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,955.274639.1%18 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdc7…6bdebacked Yes20c19,853$3,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,969.19333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9c7…147abacked Yes0c19,821$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.641816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-74.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes28c19,403$5,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,500.877337%27 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes50c19,058$9,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,482.2320143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a6d…7104backed Yes8c18,708$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.933930.8%12 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes24c18,310$4,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,353.73040%12 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes17c16,481$2,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,868.0337740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed Yes17c16,416$2,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,809.6410335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes23c16,264$3,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,679.06588.6%5 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd054…7e38backed Yes17c16,000$2,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,769.987948.1%38 W · 41 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4fc…a926backed No67c15,983$10,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,234.794738.3%18 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-25.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No67c15,824$10,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,242.2135347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes16c15,620$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,530.4322529.8%67 W · 158 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes23c14,881$3,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,367.199613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked No21c14,850$3,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,736.966532.3%21 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No70c14,695$10,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,339.8821259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes17c14,620$2,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,425.826429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3437…f8f3backed No71c14,554$10,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,179.0515953.5%85 W · 74 L+16.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x75bd…1feabacked Yes21c14,356$3,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,043.944524.4%11 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes16c14,305$2,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,252.7220749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes46c14,250$6,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,55513823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x473c…4f61backed No65c13,239$8,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,591.251457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes16c13,163$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.693831.6%12 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f17…519ebacked Yes65c13,069$8,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,533.81785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick71cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a01…7c0abacked No78c13,000$10,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,884.997042.9%30 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No57c12,198$6,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,225.5317755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed No74c11,293$8,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,953.0112054.2%65 W · 55 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes22c10,550$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,332.5427643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc16…d936backed Yes6c10,262$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.731315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+61.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x188e…70d8backed No62c10,167$6,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,829.582272.7%16 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+38.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x454e…36cbbacked No62c10,000$6,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,768.151258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No79c10,000$7,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.9911944.5%53 W · 66 L-17.8wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-32.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x7bb3…2682backed Yes23c10,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.987045.7%32 W · 38 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes36c9,984$3,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,638.2312650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes13c9,912$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30011527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc658…64acbacked No55c9,859$5,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,452.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-43.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x436f…2c7fbacked No64c9,210$5,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,315.494161%25 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x61e7…6e8bbacked Yes22c9,133$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0016349.2%31 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ebd…4a36backed No73c8,963$6,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,396.09475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked No76c8,921$6,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,135.896543.1%28 W · 37 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes73c8,914$6,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,514.724854.2%26 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes3c8,900$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.43103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd324…b23cbacked No64c8,561$5,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,084.9714944.3%66 W · 83 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf027…3f04backed No72c8,516$6,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,421.725749.1%28 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes62c8,485$5,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,246.1720549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb59…83f9backed Yes17c8,474$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.514238.1%16 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed No77c8,442$6,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.571457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42d1…14aabacked Yes19c8,400$1,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed Yes56c8,330$4,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,689.663154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49eb…cf37backed No50c8,075$4,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,044.751127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-46.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes34c7,972$2,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,690.1521531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes14c7,952$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.328126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No77c7,819$6,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,798.2912223%28 W · 94 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes27c7,554$2,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.2313617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes18c7,550$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,357.0140939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes5c7,373$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.7670%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed No68c6,819$4,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,178.986845.6%31 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e44…94fabacked No77c6,762$5,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,582.711877.8%14 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x248a…4b4abacked Yes38c6,753$2,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,561.021258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes22c6,706$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.3616526.1%43 W · 122 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes18c6,672$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.3238237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes22c6,507$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.5516831%52 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes20c6,467$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.2713829%40 W · 98 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+7.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes22c6,312$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.276936.2%25 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd4…e792backed Yes51c6,250$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2001560%9 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…ae29backed Yes16c6,146$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed No50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0004238.1%16 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No22c5,921$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,639.95232.7%17 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed Yes20c5,905$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.6813022.3%29 W · 101 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes17c5,852$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.0120736.2%75 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes32c5,702$1,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,826.2416553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed No73c5,649$4,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,542.3218246.2%84 W · 98 L-15.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa591…9079backed No74c5,566$4,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,467.66965.2%45 W · 24 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9af…c492backed Yes36c5,544$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+61.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes30c5,376$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.8715338.6%59 W · 94 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb06…adccbacked No67c5,205$3,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,693.89966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+492.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes15c5,163$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.2917839.9%71 W · 107 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.