TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$442,186
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$451,759

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $442,186 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c51,131$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.49190%0 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes5c40,850$2,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,131.4935631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9036…71e8backed Yes3c23,093$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70540%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…9402backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404216.7%7 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f0…3068backed Yes2c18,368$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.631010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid+624.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes0c14,222$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6722627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes28c13,101$3,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,629.1336227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf4d…33edbacked No71c11,693$8,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,443.447946.8%37 W · 42 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7494…680dbacked Yes20c8,430$1,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,670.84180%0 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc266…2f2fbacked Yes3c8,379$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b9…7577backed Yes3c7,576$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes2c6,330$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9522529.8%67 W · 158 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes42c4,704$1,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,972.9217530.9%54 W · 121 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No78c4,388$3,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.5815230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No80c4,233$3,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.614821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c3,569$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.511,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03af…87cbbacked Yes1c3,404$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.044032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed No59c3,375$1,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,400.3813441.8%56 W · 78 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6c0…22c1backed Yes1c3,056$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed Yes25c3,040$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.6610227.5%28 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No70c3,035$2,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.8617755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes3c3,007$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0212544%55 W · 70 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes1c3,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x145a…5e86backed Yes23c2,933$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.113138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked No77c2,894$2,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.716553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes28c2,741$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.9613250%66 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No77c2,600$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.9510737.4%40 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96ef…5523backed Yes49c2,415$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.1811842.4%50 W · 68 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes27c2,300$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.5512634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x042a…b153backed Yes1c2,200$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.61910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-80.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes15c1,876$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2754119.5%8 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes5c1,539$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.946221%13 W · 49 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-51.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc360…dbb2backed No57c1,488$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.666365.1%41 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No51c1,477$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.13461.8%21 W · 13 L+8.4wins+0.25per pick37cpaid+48%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes43c1,431$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.6831241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1718…8ceebacked Yes18c1,420$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.441050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes38c1,365$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.129613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa55f…4f15backed No74c1,361$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.955246.2%24 W · 28 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+50.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9572…abffbacked Yes2c1,300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed Yes22c1,232$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.620243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No68c1,217$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.432243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x027c…b158backed Yes20c1,196$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.148040%32 W · 48 L+11.5wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+83.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No79c1,142$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.4240433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes4c1,135$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7511320.4%23 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-19.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes23c1,105$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010240.2%41 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9665…3b4fbacked Yes40c1,046$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.661942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+21.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes43c1,020$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.613823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x270f…5e39backed Yes3c1,004$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick30cpaid+65.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39026429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes44c999.99$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.113544.4%60 W · 75 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0947…a830backed Yes6c939.32$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.07616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b3…5bfabacked Yes7c908.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603517.1%6 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+63.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes35c904.88$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.889736.1%35 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed Yes20c900$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18311250%56 W · 56 L+25.8wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+87.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x90bf…3348backed Yes47c845.39$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006633.3%22 W · 44 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes27c814$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.7712951.9%67 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d17…c3dabacked Yes3c803.73$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.35258%2 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-51.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No77c800$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.6634143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes2c782.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1815523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5973…5e13backed No58c770.94$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.259116.5%15 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes27c738.83$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4923420.9%49 W · 185 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes57c706.04$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006134.4%21 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+26.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Yes2c685$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.071596.9%11 W · 148 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed Yes37c668.29$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.1114147.5%67 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No71c663.72$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.850130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Yes25c655.04$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.899545.3%43 W · 52 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3437…f8f3backed No53c639$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.2815953.5%85 W · 74 L+16.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes11c620$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9736634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes48c617.49$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.0538247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked No67c605.24$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.7411257.1%64 W · 48 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x793d…8720backed Yes2c584.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.594734%16 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-13.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes20c576$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.214940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8963…de64backed No76c573.1$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.27365.8%48 W · 25 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x65b9…dc25backed Yes3c566.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155910.2%6 W · 53 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55b7…f23dbacked Yes30c500.02$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.491566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+68.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2752326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-48.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x72e4…7e02backed Yes3c413$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.98425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+422.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28b7…bf2dbacked Yes4c406.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed No45c400.67$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.599825.5%25 W · 73 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No35c400$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26218531.9%59 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d77…af31backed Yes14c399.95$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.995536.4%20 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes72c384.33$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.5930635.9%110 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe543…ecd4backed Yes12c363.08$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.572454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20d9…5490backed Yes26c360.37$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.075851.7%30 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+47.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes22c360$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.26145.9%28 W · 33 L+13.5wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+73.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No76c326$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2429254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes55c325.5$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.3922846.1%105 W · 123 L+22.6wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed Yes16c309.73$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0620131.8%64 W · 137 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes53c306.07$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.0412362.6%77 W · 46 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Yes33c303.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100156.7%1 W · 14 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick35cpaid-55.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed No76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7218738%71 W · 116 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes12c284.26$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.269217.4%16 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe98d…1ea3backed No77c274.36$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.361050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+28%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked No66c255.23$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.593461.8%21 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+33.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No40c251.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.2242311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed No40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15020239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes48c247.89$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12042329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes12c246.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2931728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5a68…bf1ebacked Yes4c244$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd15e…bb9ebacked Yes4c244$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.