TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$240,775
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$235,375

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,775 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb698…976abacked Yes0c52,436$231 inLost-$231.25712.3%7 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes0c30,022$61 inLost-$61.133112.9%4 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick6cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes1c10,712$54 inLost-$53.568530.6%26 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes1c10,134$146 inLost-$146.1414821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes1c10,000$60 inLost-$609613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c9,082$29 inLost-$28.948817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes0c6,000$17 inLost-$1724149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes2c5,000$100 inLost-$10016638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x687f…93b1backed Yes0c4,542$12 inLost-$1250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes1c3,010$15 inLost-$15.057946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes1c3,000$39 inLost-$3944224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xddf3…285ebacked Yes1c2,626$30 inLost-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+56.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb56d…31dabacked Yes3c2,610$78 inLost-$78.291266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+28%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes1c2,400$31 inLost-$31.21488.1%12 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+238.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes1c2,293$23 inLost-$22.9116831%52 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d32…e863backed Yes5c2,230$109 inLost-$109.29633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c0…eefdbacked Yes2c2,198$49 inLost-$48.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d07…9f68backed Yes3c2,115$70 inLost-$70520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost-$101323.1%3 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick5cpaid+193.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3373…3716backed Yes1c1,860$11 inLost-$11.1611738.5%45 W · 72 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x279c…2b82backed Yes1c1,461$21 inLost-$20.856755.2%37 W · 30 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bcf…e964backed Yes5c1,287$59 inLost-$58.971533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c1,000$15 inLost-$14.51332.3%3 W · 130 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1de2…9e23backed Yes2c921.59$20 inLost-$19.995827.6%16 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51b2…10cebacked Yes1c800$10 inLost-$108719.5%17 W · 70 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+51.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost-$103588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd94b…e595backed Yes4c305.26$11 inLost-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ae…217abacked Yes5c301$15 inLost-$15.055911.9%7 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f7…0cd6backed Yes6c215.64$13 inLost-$12.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.