Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x481e603aa927b41f06ce20e6d65eb3738a4d2f9316c47ac24985c3d8a409c2f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $351,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $457,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $351,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 10c | 30,617$3,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,077.88 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed No | 15c | 7,316$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.79 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 62c | 4,863$3,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.12 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…a80dbacked Yes | 56c | 3,752$2,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 4c | 3,221$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 10c | 3,212$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.82 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked No | 10c | 3,135$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.46 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 17c | 3,125$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.64 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…e950backed No | 2c | 2,723$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed No | 10c | 2,672$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed Yes | 77c | 2,222$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 18c | 2,057$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.79 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 22c | 1,985$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.71 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 18c | 1,860$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.81 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 39c | 1,530$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.85 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 62c | 1,521$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.32 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed No | 2c | 1,500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 20c | 1,477$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.78 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 1,438$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.06 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 13c | 1,350$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.97 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 13c | 1,343$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.52 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 31c | 1,322$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.8 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 44c | 1,267$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 12c | 1,235$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.8 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 65c | 1,200$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.77 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 14c | 1,124$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.2 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 14c | 1,122$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.47 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 9c | 1,080$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.69 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 79c | 1,052$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.21 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 35c | 1,023$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.66 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 9c | 1,017$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5254…891bbacked Yes | 74c | 1,013$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 27c | 966.96$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.76 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 21c | 940.4$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.48 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 10c | 940$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 925.36$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.21 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 12c | 909.85$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.07 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…419cbacked No | 2c | 899.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 23c | 872.05$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.64 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 9c | 838.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 11c | 763.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 38c | 758.98$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.56 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…288cbacked Yes | 78c | 717.98$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 12c | 692.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe033…40a5backed No | 63c | 658.49$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 12c | 657.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 43c | 646.35$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.23 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 12c | 643.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9133backed Yes | 79c | 631.51$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 8c | 627.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 80c | 625$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.69 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 23c | 623.02$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.03 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 79c | 566.1$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 538.82$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.92 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed No | 6c | 519.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 19c | 500.57$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed Yes | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 46c | 490.97$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.57 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 8c | 471.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 23c | 440$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 9c | 428$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 5c | 399.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 34c | 391.64$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 9c | 388.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 40c | 385.29$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.67 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 30c | 369.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.03 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 58c | 366.57$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.29 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bd…0e7fbacked No | 5c | 364.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 5c | 346.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 10c | 341.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 78c | 340$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 12c | 333.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 16c | 328.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 16c | 322.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 17c | 322.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 62c | 319$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.78 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 17c | 315.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed No | 19c | 312$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 26c | 309.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…75aebacked No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…b8dbbacked No | 19c | 293$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 18c | 271.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 21c | 271$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 14c | 264.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 17c | 263.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 30c | 260$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…b9a8backed Yes | 35c | 254.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.13 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 13c | 237.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…a5f0backed Yes | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 60c | 230$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4abc…52cabacked No | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 49c | 225.54$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.39 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…3b45backed No | 20c | 216.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 8c | 215.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 45c | 207.11$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 206.1$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?this page
- Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Matt Mahan finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.