Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8559283856653af1e08c6603ce0c26135db9beaac4df305bc4af1aff53861fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $338,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $307,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $338,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 9c | 63,223$5,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,451.98 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 35,441$2,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,502.15 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes | 6c | 17,157$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 10c | 12,000$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.94 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d1…32f4backed Yes | 2c | 10,360$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes | 4c | 8,078$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.36 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,409$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…c286backed Yes | 8c | 6,078$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Yes | 33c | 6,000$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 14c | 5,116$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.64 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…a80dbacked Yes | 41c | 4,845$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 9c | 4,500$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 7c | 4,308$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.54 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed Yes | 9c | 3,897$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.85 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 65c | 3,212$2,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +121%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…efb3backed Yes | 7c | 2,813$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,603$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43d…8a2abacked Yes | 31c | 2,571$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 7c | 2,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…3c54backed Yes | 14c | 2,370$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 26c | 2,176$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.59 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 15c | 2,165$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.72 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6efc…f1f5backed Yes | 6c | 2,126$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 61c | 2,093$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fd…6acfbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 37c | 1,852$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.59 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 68c | 1,739$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.32 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 15c | 1,699$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.83 | 155 | 31%48 W · 107 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…89f8backed Yes | 2c | 1,603$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 14c | 1,053$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.57 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 19c | 798.11$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.69 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 15c | 673.65$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 26c | 667.36$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.97 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 15c | 613.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 24c | 582.26$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.95 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 11c | 544.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 16c | 544$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 15c | 506.84$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…44d8backed Yes | 6c | 481.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bba…c7d3backed Yes | 32c | 468.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 10c | 466.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 18c | 428.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 71c | 402.84$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.82 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 13c | 392.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 28c | 376.31$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.84 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7751…991dbacked Yes | 9c | 369.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 3c | 361.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 9c | 357.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 341.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 21c | 338.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6798…2f58backed Yes | 31c | 311.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 76c | 304.35$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 181 | 26%47 W · 134 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…aae2backed Yes | 26c | 304.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fb…59e6backed Yes | 7c | 289.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 18c | 269.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 254.78$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 29c | 238.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 22c | 235.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…11f0backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked Yes | 11c | 212.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 18c | 211.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4abc…52cabacked Yes | 14c | 207.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aae…36abbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9133backed No | 78c | 185.32$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 65c | 149$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 56c | 138.25$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 128.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 120.45$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 119.81$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 112.12$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 107.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 13c | 105.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…1202backed Yes | 18c | 104.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e7…a3e0backed Yes | 17c | 100.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a0…9e73backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…f403backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 23c | 96.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 72c | 94.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 63c | 87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 85.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…afaabacked Yes | 14c | 82.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 82.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…e458backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…2eacbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4513…5a38backed Yes | 31c | 78.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 65c | 69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 74c | 66.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…8767backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc5…06cdbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 59.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x577a…a587backed Yes | 33c | 56.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…4aeebacked No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?this page
- Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Matt Mahan finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.