Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37cddfae30b1504a955a70d555381ee2b4aae5c09e1bcf43b654d79957c196af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 2c | 34,158$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,413$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.71 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 5c | 6,830$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.04 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…a307backed Yes | 12c | 6,539$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 6,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed Yes | 1c | 5,336$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,989$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 2,706$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.71 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,591$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.05 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 1,834$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.74 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 9c | 1,634$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.05 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 5c | 1,592$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 6c | 1,301$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.53 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 7c | 1,100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 7c | 1,019$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 4c | 873.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 5c | 864.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 5c | 699.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 5c | 660$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 9c | 602.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 7c | 574.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 563.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 3c | 557.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 30c | 554.39$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.01 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 12c | 485$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 4c | 430.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +127.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 5c | 416$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4abc…52cabacked Yes | 7c | 399.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 387$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 378.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 81 | 6.2%5 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 15c | 353.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe033…40a5backed Yes | 21c | 328.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 313.85$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…3912backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 35c | 297.26$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…70e6backed Yes | 5c | 296.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 6c | 293.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed Yes | 9c | 286.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 264.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 74c | 248.86$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 35c | 244.47$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 7c | 236.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Yes | 8c | 213$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…f533backed Yes | 18c | 200.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…b9a8backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 9c | 163.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 144$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4513…5a38backed Yes | 39c | 124.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed16…9314backed Yes | 14c | 73.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 73c | 70.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 25c | 55.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 76c | 52.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 70c | 23.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?this page
- Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Matt Mahan finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.