Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa59099fbda1e0f0058ed3cbd57e939fe90ab6d9b57d53bd488bcadf75c191d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,050,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,596,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,050,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,526 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e02…bfcebacked Yes | 3c | 684,949$17,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,883.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 3c | 439,620$11,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,264.72 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 47c | 397,750$187,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187,988.73 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 3c | 224,374$6,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,402.75 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…bebabacked No | 56c | 206,302$114,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91,671.24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…b0a2backed Yes | 32c | 200,372$63,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,855.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 39c | 169,079$66,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,621.16 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 45c | 108,240$48,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,684.45 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc266…2f2fbacked Yes | 8c | 103,914$8,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,099 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 22c | 99,353$22,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,046.13 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 14c | 98,000$13,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,349.11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…1db6backed Yes | 42c | 96,533$40,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,737.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 10c | 93,859$9,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,705.52 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 89,758$14,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,609.45 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 59c | 86,115$50,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,550.47 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 15c | 80,239$12,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,291.32 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a16…33dbbacked No | 59c | 78,176$46,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,076.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 2c | 69,510$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.58 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…70d8backed No | 59c | 66,455$39,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,397.83 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 12c | 65,599$7,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,698.02 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked No | 47c | 64,284$29,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,379.91 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23e3…23c6backed Yes | 3c | 63,235$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 4c | 62,522$2,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,363.33 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 54c | 62,227$33,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,383.74 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 54,489$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.75 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 50c | 51,640$25,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,985.04 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x174b…5a55backed No | 45c | 50,890$22,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,070 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc5…afc9backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +251%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…4fe5backed Yes | 4c | 49,757$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,764.83 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 64c | 49,111$31,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,839.87 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed No | 65c | 48,500$31,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,739.33 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 51c | 45,178$22,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,882.71 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613c…e423backed Yes | 52c | 42,281$22,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,111.97 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…3ae9backed No | 56c | 41,963$23,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,346.29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 49c | 39,567$19,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,070.76 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 37c | 38,115$14,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,086.99 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 55c | 36,047$19,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,201.76 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 54c | 36,038$19,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,748.49 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…1e69backed No | 70c | 33,925$23,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,056.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 15c | 33,859$5,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,228.54 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…cdcbbacked No | 49c | 33,316$16,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,128.4 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e89…5593backed Yes | 41c | 32,300$13,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,101 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 37c | 31,810$11,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,921.81 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…e792backed No | 65c | 31,107$20,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,836.71 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 3c | 30,032$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.04 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 15c | 29,315$4,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,443.41 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 73c | 28,803$21,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,674.28 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fee…eda2backed Yes | 35c | 28,338$10,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,015.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 4c | 28,042$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.99 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cce…5c11backed No | 54c | 27,960$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,960.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed No | 62c | 26,939$16,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,315.25 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 35c | 26,687$9,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,363.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acd…2f49backed Yes | 1c | 25,751$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 30c | 24,945$7,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,379.13 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 43c | 24,925$10,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,832.7 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 6c | 24,810$1,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514.45 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…dbbbbacked Yes | 52c | 24,797$12,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,847.6 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed No | 72c | 23,332$16,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,519.12 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 47c | 23,164$10,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,823.32 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…cc11backed No | 43c | 23,055$10,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,040.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 57c | 22,290$12,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,550.74 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 50c | 22,036$10,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,993.64 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4c…b4c3backed Yes | 46c | 21,968$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +220.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 52c | 21,320$10,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,322.4 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Yes | 15c | 20,851$3,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,104.19 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…dbb2backed No | 69c | 20,259$13,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,370.57 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 6c | 20,015$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.74 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 38c | 20,000$7,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,600 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…62e0backed No | 46c | 20,000$9,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,749.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…74f7backed No | 61c | 19,912$12,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,744.85 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked Yes | 11c | 19,692$2,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,167.37 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7633…312ebacked No | 46c | 19,035$8,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,237.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…96a8backed Yes | 39c | 19,000$7,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,319.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +162.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 27c | 18,720$5,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,041.15 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 34c | 18,626$6,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,329.14 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433e…86fcbacked Yes | 2c | 18,619$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.55 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7a…29f6backed No | 62c | 18,505$11,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,042.74 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f6…23babacked No | 55c | 18,188$9,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,191.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…128ebacked No | 71c | 17,961$12,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,131.45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 52c | 17,842$9,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,646.22 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 6c | 17,523$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.22 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 41c | 17,421$7,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,072.69 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 36c | 17,335$6,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,279.44 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e41…3745backed No | 49c | 17,329$8,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,909.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 47c | 16,989$8,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,008.81 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed6…b4b4backed Yes | 38c | 16,802$6,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,438.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ce…16babacked No | 67c | 16,655$11,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,481.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd624…a0f8backed Yes | 54c | 16,524$8,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,914 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed No | 54c | 16,050$8,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,446.49 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 39c | 15,916$6,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,185.45 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…a1a3backed No | 57c | 15,717$9,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,682.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 66c | 15,507$10,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,178.17 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 51c | 15,492$7,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,593.58 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 39c | 15,081$5,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,201.04 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 15,055$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.82 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…8742backed Yes | 36c | 15,040$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5e…c8c1backed Yes | 4c | 15,000$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 42c | 14,902$6,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,307.84 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e74…6d51backed No | 27c | 14,612$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,612.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?this page
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Yes won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.