Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93ab6cbb3e85d16b5f06859f3e0a368fb38402c4cf3d851829749fd56a007b48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,147,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,934,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,147,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 574 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 3c | 94,042$2,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,887.01 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Yes | 6c | 61,625$4,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,002.45 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 10c | 57,473$6,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,029 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 6c | 56,049$3,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,174.92 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…80d0backed Yes | 7c | 54,765$4,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,014.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 20cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 8c | 51,160$3,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,865.56 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 5c | 47,700$2,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 2c | 38,414$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.43 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 5c | 36,474$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,957.31 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…c320backed Yes | 5c | 33,989$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 3c | 33,763$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.18 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 31,559$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,184.92 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 6c | 26,942$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.01 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 8c | 25,454$2,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.41 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 24,084$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.33 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 74c | 23,933$17,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,146.76 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5c…7b5bbacked Yes | 3c | 23,933$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.62 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -74%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Yes | 2c | 22,299$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.87 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 14c | 20,939$2,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,935.06 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 6c | 20,748$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.47 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked Yes | 18c | 19,815$3,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,580.09 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 4c | 19,496$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.45 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 1c | 19,101$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.24 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 2c | 18,540$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.49 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 35c | 17,583$6,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,150 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 9c | 17,000$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.99 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf686…dcc1backed Yes | 14c | 16,485$2,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,362 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 6c | 15,946$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.44 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 80c | 14,518$11,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,969.73 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d2…88aebacked Yes | 7c | 13,854$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…8cd8backed Yes | 4c | 13,040$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 6c | 12,376$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.38 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 4c | 12,249$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.84 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes | 9c | 11,111$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 11c | 10,892$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.18 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 6c | 10,031$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.95 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 2c | 9,999$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.31 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 5c | 9,983$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.32 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42d…2e9abacked Yes | 22c | 9,964$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 6c | 9,722$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.15 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 10c | 9,663$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.78 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 6c | 8,955$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.22 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 4c | 8,839$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.45 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 1c | 8,549$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…9725backed Yes | 19c | 8,156$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.63 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 3c | 8,018$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.21 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 9c | 8,008$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.83 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 7,800$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.31 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe291…9806backed Yes | 5c | 7,751$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e89…5593backed No | 75c | 7,491$5,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,848.73 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 7,429$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.01 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…c42ebacked Yes | 4c | 7,248$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.48 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +7.0wins | +0.30per pick | 26cpaid | +463%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 11c | 7,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.99 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 15c | 6,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 10c | 6,804$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.46 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 13c | 6,764$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.17 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 26c | 6,650$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,713.93 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 6c | 6,293$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05a6…7c90backed Yes | 2c | 6,219$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 14c | 6,072$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.62 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9557…7136backed Yes | 8c | 5,870$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 13cpaid | +1,012.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 8c | 5,780$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.81 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes | 18c | 5,656$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x007e…c290backed Yes | 9c | 5,497$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.47 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +437.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 5,271$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.54 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b6…aeefbacked Yes | 13c | 5,193$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes | 2c | 5,136$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 2c | 5,090$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…0a76backed Yes | 14c | 5,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba2…53ddbacked Yes | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Yes | 3c | 4,871$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.29 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b0…24c8backed Yes | 14c | 4,843$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Yes | 3c | 4,785$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.09 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 4,761$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.85 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa796…2125backed Yes | 4c | 4,728$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 5c | 4,650$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.81 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,639$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.62 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 2c | 4,625$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.45 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 2c | 4,604$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f8dbbacked Yes | 3c | 4,505$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…f055backed Yes | 14c | 4,423$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.43 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +112%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…d33abacked Yes | 3c | 4,389$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b7…15febacked Yes | 3c | 4,378$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 8c | 4,300$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db5…f3aabacked Yes | 6c | 4,277$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.28 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…9febbacked Yes | 5c | 4,115$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.94 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Yes | 2c | 4,100$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x749a…6889backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb9…2818backed Yes | 7c | 3,980$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 78c | 3,961$3,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.03 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa736…bd52backed Yes | 7c | 3,885$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.99 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 10c | 3,859$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Yes | 3c | 3,846$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,545$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4461…4485backed Yes | 2c | 3,520$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…e41dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,500$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +306.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc13…9c34backed Yes | 13c | 3,353$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 2c | 3,325$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?this page
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Yes won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.