Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb93584bc7cb64d2cb7012ec18974299402378c80fc3f0cd6f49ca5e94094e485
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $313,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $313,342 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 8c | 49,673$3,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,928.23 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed No | 66c | 9,469$6,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,256.61 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 79c | 8,898$7,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,829.45 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 8,830$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 6c | 8,070$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.11 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed No | 77c | 7,214$5,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.1 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 18c | 7,162$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.49 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 6,712$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.6 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed Yes | 33c | 5,300$1,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 14c | 4,422$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.66 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 14c | 3,310$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.84 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,174$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,938$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4a…a3a3backed Yes | 25c | 2,890$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1f…fe24backed Yes | 19c | 2,750$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 79c | 2,604$2,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.81 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…9f17backed Yes | 8c | 2,597$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.11 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2521…eec7backed Yes | 21c | 2,488$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.65 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…b665backed Yes | 16c | 2,335$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…f4e0backed Yes | 34c | 2,096$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 2c | 1,904$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,859$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…b3ecbacked No | 77c | 1,845$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed6…b0b3backed Yes | 37c | 1,840$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 1,781$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,762$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…5840backed Yes | 18c | 1,667$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…eed0backed Yes | 34c | 1,626$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 11c | 1,403$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.57 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed Yes | 23c | 1,350$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf097…b974backed Yes | 3c | 1,305$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 16c | 1,222$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.45 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 20c | 1,220$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.31 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7778…2a76backed Yes | 17c | 1,183$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.63 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 58c | 1,017$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.21 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…6057backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab8…b955backed Yes | 24c | 957.84$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.88 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…de75backed Yes | 11c | 918.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 80c | 889$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.8 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…7f72backed No | 75c | 870.38$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 61c | 856.37$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.75 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 77c | 854.99$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.49 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 21c | 846.74$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.82 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked No | 64c | 837.55$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.02 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…fa08backed No | 79c | 802.17$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 5c | 799.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked No | 55c | 799.99$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 80c | 787.5$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…5902backed Yes | 4c | 785.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…50dbbacked Yes | 3c | 776.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…44f1backed Yes | 11c | 732.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…2a71backed No | 76c | 731.82$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 3c | 701.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 40c | 699.99$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 48c | 640.44$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…9410backed Yes | 2c | 640$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae8…dc6dbacked No | 77c | 634.86$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +148.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked Yes | 20c | 597$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…ad61backed No | 65c | 560$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…e30cbacked Yes | 4c | 540.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Yes | 33c | 537.76$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed Yes | 38c | 534.49$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Yes | 33c | 525$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 35c | 511.39$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.33 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 4c | 507.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked No | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 11c | 462$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4de4…5dd5backed Yes | 3c | 437.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f2…37e1backed Yes | 46c | 435.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +166.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 40c | 430.03$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.97 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f4…6347backed Yes | 23c | 429.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Yes | 39c | 408.67$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.04 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 21c | 400$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed No | 61c | 399.85$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed No | 68c | 386.05$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.54 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…ea6fbacked Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…4743backed Yes | 7c | 358.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d5…b3f7backed Yes | 37c | 340$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3d…c31abacked Yes | 5c | 335.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd377…e188backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…054cbacked Yes | 23c | 328.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…a1c9backed No | 70c | 324.99$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a66…7bd1backed Yes | 27c | 322.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6059…2f6ebacked Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…2953backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ed…b5c4backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e36…d2d1backed Yes | 33c | 298.82$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 4c | 279.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3a…05e9backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…080abacked No | 72c | 276.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…8f10backed No | 75c | 272.5$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?this page
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Yes won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.