Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cbfefb1c7f083b083bbc123b164c05fc13a9baf298063e9570fceb0ff1742a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,173,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,078,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,173,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,804 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 18c | 348,961$61,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,213.51 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 42c | 74,761$31,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,241.63 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 17c | 69,024$11,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,573.94 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 13c | 68,321$9,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,211.43 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 39c | 66,666$25,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,923.2 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…8510backed No | 55c | 62,763$34,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,488.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 15c | 62,545$9,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,504.94 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 36c | 60,273$21,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,682.9 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42d…2e9abacked Yes | 31c | 57,707$18,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,028.37 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 15c | 55,236$8,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,343.11 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 24c | 52,183$12,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,284.18 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 17c | 49,368$8,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,389.54 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 13c | 47,782$6,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,111.29 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…80d0backed Yes | 5c | 47,411$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 20cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 77c | 46,738$36,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,553.05 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked No | 77c | 45,214$34,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,513.31 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 56c | 40,028$22,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,433.02 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 6c | 39,846$2,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,582.99 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 20c | 38,736$7,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,665.25 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 21c | 37,470$7,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,958.63 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 23c | 36,569$8,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,432.86 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 12c | 33,384$3,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,974.49 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 32c | 30,158$9,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,589.84 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e1…b30fbacked Yes | 11c | 27,065$2,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,970.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 79c | 23,451$18,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,021.4 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 19c | 22,000$4,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,259.95 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe6…2440backed No | 75c | 20,897$15,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,154.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 65c | 20,000$12,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,050.48 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 33c | 19,948$6,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,573.04 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…62e0backed No | 67c | 19,800$13,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,593.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 17c | 18,514$3,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,171.29 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 78c | 17,836$13,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,849.8 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 3c | 17,677$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.13 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 24c | 17,070$4,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,096.79 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…c035backed No | 59c | 16,885$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,885.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…e845backed No | 80c | 16,117$12,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,288.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 30c | 15,947$4,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800.93 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes | 43c | 15,066$6,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,464.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 15,042$3,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,731.63 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3267…2573backed Yes | 0c | 14,955$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff8…54adbacked Yes | 17c | 14,287$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 60c | 14,250$8,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,639.94 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 18c | 14,109$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.3 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 14,047$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.28 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 14c | 13,885$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,941.86 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ef…418dbacked Yes | 16c | 13,676$2,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,140 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 19c | 13,674$2,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,538.87 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 13c | 13,082$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.41 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…70d8backed No | 56c | 12,975$7,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,690.17 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…509bbacked No | 54c | 12,065$6,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,513.03 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 11,994$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.88 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 73c | 11,953$8,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,251.74 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 30c | 11,851$3,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,534.99 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 23c | 11,764$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,729.79 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 71c | 11,703$8,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,339.12 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…f055backed Yes | 5c | 11,444$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +112%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 44c | 11,409$5,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,017.37 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 8c | 11,294$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3723…1fdabacked No | 57c | 11,265$6,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,877.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 78c | 10,896$8,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,414.13 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 11c | 10,770$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.97 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 2c | 10,538$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.84 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 13c | 10,250$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.56 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d2…88aebacked Yes | 8c | 10,128$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.78 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…2953backed Yes | 12c | 10,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +9.7wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +186.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…eecfbacked Yes | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 6c | 9,950$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.11 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1caa…46a0backed No | 77c | 9,719$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,219 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed Yes | 15c | 9,449$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 16c | 9,397$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.44 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 22c | 9,333$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.87 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 10c | 9,199$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.94 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +54%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 13c | 9,145$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.93 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713f…d6ddbacked Yes | 10c | 9,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd624…a0f8backed Yes | 18c | 8,952$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 12c | 8,876$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.05 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 78c | 8,835$6,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,929.12 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…8339backed No | 59c | 8,700$5,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,585.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 61c | 8,206$4,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,209.82 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdc…e1dcbacked Yes | 19c | 8,014$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.63 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b4…9846backed Yes | 13c | 8,003$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 63c | 8,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0e…6ebfbacked Yes | 3c | 7,957$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.38 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 16c | 7,872$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.51 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed No | 58c | 7,834$4,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,270.82 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…5ababacked Yes | 17c | 7,612$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed No | 70c | 7,500$5,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,274.99 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -9.8wins | -0.32per pick | 67cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e3…77adbacked Yes | 16c | 7,335$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 24c | 7,214$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.99 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…84f6backed Yes | 15c | 7,205$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.73 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 23c | 7,171$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,661.74 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 80c | 7,057$5,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.76 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…aabfbacked No | 75c | 7,004$5,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,783.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 7,000$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.8 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 14c | 7,000$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.79 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa014…bd1abacked No | 79c | 6,980$5,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x627d…7d68backed Yes | 10c | 6,953$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.66 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 11c | 6,931$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.38 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…63b1backed Yes | 32c | 6,880$2,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?this page
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Yes won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.