TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,173,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,078,232

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,173,902 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,804 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed Yes18c348,961$61,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,213.5114821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes42c74,761$31,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,241.6331241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes17c69,024$11,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,573.9412650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes13c68,321$9,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,211.438530.6%26 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes39c66,666$25,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,923.213850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a3…8510backed No55c62,763$34,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,488.03771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes15c62,545$9,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,504.9442818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88c4…129abacked Yes36c60,273$21,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,682.95954.2%32 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42d…2e9abacked Yes31c57,707$18,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,028.371747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes15c55,236$8,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,343.117732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes24c52,183$12,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,284.1835631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed Yes17c49,368$8,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,389.548937.1%33 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes13c47,782$6,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,111.2928750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd57d…80d0backed Yes5c47,411$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.651546.7%7 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.27per pick20cpaid+273.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No77c46,738$36,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,553.0535347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf396…ed0dbacked No77c45,214$34,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,513.313151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No56c40,028$22,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,433.025745.6%26 W · 31 L-8.3wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes6c39,846$2,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,582.99623.2%2 W · 60 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes20c38,736$7,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,665.2520549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes21c37,470$7,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,958.635836.2%21 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+73%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes23c36,569$8,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,432.8651138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes12c33,384$3,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,974.4915230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes32c30,158$9,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,589.846439.1%25 W · 39 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33e1…b30fbacked Yes11c27,065$2,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,970.91520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No79c23,451$18,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,021.438237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes19c22,000$4,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,259.9526429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe6…2440backed No75c20,897$15,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,154.03922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-70.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed No65c20,000$12,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,050.484553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes33c19,948$6,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,573.0420336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46d3…62e0backed No67c19,800$13,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,593.98933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes17c18,514$3,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,171.2928427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No78c17,836$13,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,849.835355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x96ef…5523backed Yes3c17,677$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.1311842.4%50 W · 68 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes24c17,070$4,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,096.7913823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5f…c035backed No59c16,885$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,885.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4f…e845backed No80c16,117$12,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,288.74742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes30c15,947$4,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,800.93779.1%7 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes43c15,066$6,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,464.82616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-78.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c15,042$3,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,731.6389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3267…2573backed Yes0c14,955$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ff8…54adbacked Yes17c14,287$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No60c14,250$8,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,639.9427643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed Yes18c14,109$2,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.319449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c14,047$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.287618.4%14 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes14c13,885$1,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,941.868845.5%40 W · 48 L+9.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+48.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6ef…418dbacked Yes16c13,676$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1401241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick21cpaid+54.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed Yes19c13,674$2,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,538.8710335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes13c13,082$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.4111537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x188e…70d8backed No56c12,975$7,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,690.172272.7%16 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+38.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked No54c12,065$6,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,513.03875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c11,994$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.8842120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked No73c11,953$8,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,251.7416553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes30c11,851$3,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,534.9917755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes23c11,764$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,729.7928734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6bab…0fe5backed No71c11,703$8,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,339.125541.8%23 W · 32 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d1b…f055backed Yes5c11,444$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+112%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes44c11,409$5,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,017.374656.5%26 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes8c11,294$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90121525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3723…1fdabacked No57c11,265$6,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,877.643100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked No78c10,896$8,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,414.1310945.9%50 W · 59 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes11c10,770$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.978928.1%25 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+74.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes2c10,538$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.845014%7 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed Yes13c10,250$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.569153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x83d2…88aebacked Yes8c10,128$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.781711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4d8a…2953backed Yes12c10,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003948.7%19 W · 20 L+9.7wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+186.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xa04d…eecfbacked Yes13c10,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes6c9,950$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.1115023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1caa…46a0backed No77c9,719$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2191030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+52.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef4…9729backed Yes15c9,449$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.39944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes16c9,397$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.447448.6%36 W · 38 L+9.7wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+156.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes22c9,333$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.8736227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked Yes10c9,199$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.942576%19 W · 6 L+6.1wins+0.24per pick52cpaid+54%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes13c9,145$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.939222.8%21 W · 71 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x713f…d6ddbacked Yes10c9,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd624…a0f8backed Yes18c8,952$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6005234.6%18 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes12c8,876$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.0519119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed No78c8,835$6,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.129441.5%39 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4db9…8339backed No59c8,700$5,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,585.992222.7%5 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ac…79ecbacked No61c8,206$4,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,209.825054%27 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bdc…e1dcbacked Yes19c8,014$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.632347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b4…9846backed Yes13c8,003$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No63c8,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0008359%49 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d0e…6ebfbacked Yes3c7,957$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.382817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-57.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes16c7,872$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.5111222.3%25 W · 87 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff99…5602backed No58c7,834$4,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,270.824959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8d9…5ababacked Yes17c7,612$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.4360%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e77…c4f3backed No70c7,500$5,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,274.993135.5%11 W · 20 L-9.8wins-0.32per pick67cpaid-52.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xd7e3…77adbacked Yes16c7,335$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.53714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-82.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes24c7,214$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,696.9919829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf296…84f6backed Yes15c7,205$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.732920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick30cpaid+5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes23c7,171$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,661.7412629.4%37 W · 89 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No80c7,057$5,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.7632243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e4…aabfbacked No75c7,004$5,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,783.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes5c7,000$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.83717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes14c7,000$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.793154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa014…bd1abacked No79c6,980$5,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.72475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x627d…7d68backed Yes10c6,953$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.661963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes11c6,931$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.388538.8%33 W · 52 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0838…63b1backed Yes32c6,880$2,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,230.06425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.