Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadfc5f347af3d331a8dcdeee4b1495decf065b6cb54f75b687a067c5177c7dd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $924,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $784,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $924,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdc5…afc9backed Yes | 0c | 477,426$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751.2 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +251%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 0c | 75,663$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.93 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 2c | 36,492$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 1c | 32,828$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.25 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Yes | 1c | 23,179$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.64 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 1c | 21,820$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.09 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5b…7796backed Yes | 0c | 21,366$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.36 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 2c | 20,000$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.09 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed Yes | 1c | 10,433$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.76 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d6…cb5cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,311$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,021$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…526bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,191$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,942$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 4c | 5,636$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.72 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 1c | 5,134$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 2c | 4,999$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 4,031$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,780$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5529backed Yes | 1c | 2,641$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -9.6wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 1c | 1,931$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +522.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,765$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,730$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…7ab0backed Yes | 1c | 1,656$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc1…5ddbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,527$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 1c | 1,089$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…477cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…a1a3backed Yes | 2c | 706.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…eb8dbacked Yes | 1c | 703.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Yes | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…f6c3backed Yes | 4c | 599.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 4c | 559.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaba…b716backed Yes | 7c | 540.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c02…739bbacked Yes | 4c | 270.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…85dcbacked Yes | 4c | 257.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?this page
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Yes won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.