Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x125466a1d45ae996569106ee1d4f804bc3de7bea9b244bc756e5f41e88d6d6d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,058,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,058,279 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 409 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 5c | 48,514$2,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,492.9 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 18c | 36,780$6,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,777.84 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 8c | 28,607$2,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.54 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 5c | 27,390$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.67 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 14c | 17,632$2,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,546.26 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 4c | 17,110$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.62 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 8c | 15,447$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.12 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 9c | 14,180$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.42 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 9c | 13,966$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.24 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 17c | 12,990$2,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,213.47 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 80c | 12,167$9,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,449.75 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…f757backed Yes | 10c | 12,000$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.38 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed Yes | 1c | 10,166$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.82 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 8,361$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.06 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 10c | 8,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.77 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 9c | 7,940$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.18 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 8c | 7,765$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.22 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed Yes | 13c | 7,725$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.89 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…8ff5backed Yes | 25c | 7,197$1,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,764.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 70c | 7,154$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,154.19 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 16c | 7,055$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.5 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 18c | 6,069$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.55 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4249…ab7bbacked Yes | 12c | 6,008$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 23c | 5,646$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.85 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 9c | 5,200$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 71c | 5,065$3,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.43 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…b4adbacked Yes | 2c | 5,014$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 11c | 4,780$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 10c | 4,771$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.13 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 2c | 4,500$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 6c | 4,478$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 12c | 4,434$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.79 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 4,142$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.25 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 11c | 4,011$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.54 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 15c | 3,963$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.55 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 19c | 3,507$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.5 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4386…e629backed Yes | 9c | 3,491$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +204.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,300$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 15c | 3,268$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 9c | 3,100$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.96 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 6c | 3,100$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…b034backed Yes | 10c | 3,089$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 21c | 3,076$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.89 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…7698backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,980$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.38 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,915$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 9c | 2,777$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.68 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…43dabacked Yes | 2c | 2,632$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…79eebacked Yes | 9c | 2,626$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.63 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…a537backed Yes | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…985fbacked Yes | 15c | 2,382$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 2c | 2,291$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 8c | 2,261$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.86 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,224$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 16c | 2,206$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…db9fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,200$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,089$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.67 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2521…eec7backed Yes | 39c | 2,070$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed No | 54c | 2,070$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.07 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…3075backed No | 65c | 2,000$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.65 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 27c | 1,878$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.04 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 13c | 1,800$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 18c | 1,799$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.61 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 1,768$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.83 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…637dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,579$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…c941backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…55a0backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 5c | 1,426$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 16c | 1,372$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.02 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 3c | 1,321$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 66c | 1,262$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.48 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…9b02backed Yes | 12c | 1,240$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…f732backed Yes | 52c | 1,239$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.51 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 17c | 1,214$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.22 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,197$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 4c | 1,178$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…4a59backed Yes | 37c | 1,170$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.59 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…f9abbacked Yes | 8c | 1,168$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 3c | 1,150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 9c | 1,113$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1344…fe35backed Yes | 9c | 1,101$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5290…6feabacked Yes | 9c | 1,073$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 6c | 1,073$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 8c | 1,040$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…fa08backed No | 77c | 1,009$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…0d19backed Yes | 10c | 1,005$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbf…b0eebacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 22c | 999.98$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbebe…72e1backed Yes | 8c | 999.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?this page
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Yes won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?No won
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.