TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xec05…054c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
42
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: CS2, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+75%+$239.7
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+105.4%+$32.88
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$220.47
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.75
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.87
US strikes Iraq by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$24.33
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+58.5%+$166.25
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$79.93
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$64.42
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$174.35
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+147.3%+$16
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+29.2%+$50.87
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+63.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+238.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+238.4%+$66.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+76.8%+$102.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+60.9%+$30.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+52.4%+$6.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+47.5%+$10.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+46.5%+$105.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$323Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$322.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$22
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.