Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cda6db1adf41956540a7335c78087550802d089483c22f2b1fbec930e87d82c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Aurora, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked MOUZ | 38c | 52,188$19,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,371.86 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Aurora | 62c | 50,000$31,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,000 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Aurora | 0c | 5,147$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ | 44c | 4,062$1,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,257.53 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…f688backed MOUZ | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.99 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked MOUZ | 36c | 2,112$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.54 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed MOUZ | 47c | 2,000$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…aeb9backed Aurora | 53c | 1,900$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…8b22backed Aurora | 63c | 1,250$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Aurora | 54c | 1,048$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.2 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…de83backed Aurora | 54c | 966.67$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked Aurora | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Aurora | 54c | 888$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.52 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Aurora | 64c | 820.93$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.08 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb126…9848backed Aurora | 54c | 747.02$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…95fbbacked Aurora | 54c | 734.13$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Aurora | 57c | 688.95$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.04 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora | 62c | 610.86$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.28 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac5d…d45fbacked Aurora | 63c | 600$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c7…620cbacked Aurora | 56c | 571.43$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked MOUZ | 44c | 511.36$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.36 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed MOUZ | 47c | 485.79$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.47 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed MOUZ | 37c | 459.83$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.69 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…0b73backed Aurora | 56c | 450$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6d…71b4backed Aurora | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Aurora | 55c | 443.09$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.7 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…b42bbacked Aurora | 66c | 423.57$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora | 61c | 293.56$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.9 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Aurora | 56c | 250$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…b1a1backed Aurora | 66c | 234.85$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed MOUZ | 35c | 231.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.92 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Aurora | 50c | 230.1$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed MOUZ | 39c | 205$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.05 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed MOUZ | 33c | 191.81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.25 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb22d…3a13backed Aurora | 55c | 181.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…bce9backed Aurora | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…054cbacked Aurora | 64c | 169.53$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115f…e217backed MOUZ | 39c | 163.71$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.86 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Aurora | 69c | 145.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24eb…75eebacked Aurora | 56c | 135.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…b6b4backed Aurora | 60c | 105.35$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed MOUZ | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb759…ed73backed Aurora | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…eb6ebacked Aurora | 63c | 90.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed MOUZ | 37c | 79.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Aurora | 69c | 72.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…8122backed Aurora | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Aurora | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…1a70backed Aurora | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed MOUZ | 36c | 56.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…6381backed Aurora | 61c | 50.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Aurora | 69c | 46.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed MOUZ | 42c | 41.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ | 43c | 31.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x899e…0863backed Aurora | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 264 | 54.5%144 W · 120 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2MOUZ won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.