Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf736cce2033dd9a95e06c56512ca25deea1e7be1599cfb2f0febb693b40c7370
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Aurora, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $185,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7744…999ebacked MOUZ | 26c | 44,153$11,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,808.54 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked MOUZ | 35c | 24,803$8,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,234.05 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ed…4ae2backed Aurora | 74c | 12,432$9,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 62c | 11,446$7,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,084.31 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ | 27c | 11,164$2,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,172.97 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed MOUZ | 46c | 10,647$4,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,721.58 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…a35abacked Aurora | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 70c | 9,187$6,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,401.07 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x084b…3de6backed MOUZ | 48c | 7,220$3,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,789.12 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…47f4backed Aurora | 73c | 6,849$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 75c | 6,660$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed MOUZ | 39c | 5,352$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,264.53 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Aurora | 74c | 5,000$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed MOUZ | 22c | 4,800$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,743.99 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Aurora | 39c | 4,555$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.22 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked Aurora | 75c | 4,444$3,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,346.85 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 72cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d33…7287backed Aurora | 78c | 4,425$3,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,447.64 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…1ffbbacked Aurora | 71c | 4,248$3,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,008.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ | 25c | 4,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,979.99 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e7…6a52backed Aurora | 80c | 3,670$2,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,917.74 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Aurora | 74c | 3,659$2,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,707.66 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed MOUZ | 30c | 3,320$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,319.19 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Aurora | 76c | 2,633$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.97 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…c0bebacked Aurora | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Aurora | 75c | 2,314$1,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,736.5 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…43c8backed Aurora | 74c | 2,250$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed Aurora | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf076…9ac4backed Aurora | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora | 60c | 1,861$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.04 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…1069backed Aurora | 74c | 1,474$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.86 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Aurora | 52c | 1,440$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.88 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f52…c525backed Aurora | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…359dbacked MOUZ | 26c | 1,283$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44e5…3c33backed Aurora | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 71c | 1,261$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.17 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked MOUZ | 25c | 1,021$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.82 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…7e65backed MOUZ | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfffd…a1e5backed MOUZ | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Aurora | 73c | 999.94$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.95 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…8b22backed MOUZ | 27c | 980.35$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x750c…2fe3backed MOUZ | 26c | 882.63$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…ed24backed MOUZ | 26c | 855.56$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.49 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Aurora | 40c | 804.98$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.99 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…ee7abacked Aurora | 34c | 750$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.8 | 243 | 45.3%110 W · 133 L | +15.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Aurora | 76c | 750$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15f…7deebacked Aurora | 73c | 719.73$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.15 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3260…85ddbacked Aurora | 75c | 700$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…adc7backed Aurora | 80c | 657.36$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.11 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…8a16backed Aurora | 72c | 651.63$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Aurora | 64c | 634.99$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.46 | 218 | 51.8%113 W · 105 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Aurora | 73c | 600.89$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed MOUZ | 54c | 600$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora | 73c | 599.93$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.95 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd6…5f73backed Aurora | 74c | 567.59$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.27 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed MOUZ | 26c | 525.97$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.72 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ | 36c | 516.4$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.58 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…5d25backed Aurora | 73c | 438$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.24 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb759…ed73backed Aurora | 69c | 430.96$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.26 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Aurora | 77c | 429.1$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.05 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed MOUZ | 24c | 415.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.03 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Aurora | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…5280backed MOUZ | 56c | 397.6$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.56 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…d212backed Aurora | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…b42bbacked MOUZ | 27c | 394.43$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Aurora | 45c | 385.69$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.11 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked MOUZ | 44c | 372.08$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.27 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Aurora | 61c | 361.17$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.87 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed MOUZ | 49c | 336.9$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.51 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa83f…b857backed Aurora | 74c | 330$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.2 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Aurora | 73c | 297.37$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.08 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…d5c3backed MOUZ | 26c | 292.73$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.51 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked MOUZ | 28c | 282.76$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.94 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…ba9ebacked Aurora | 76c | 277.07$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.44 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6751…0d8abacked Aurora | 74c | 269.36$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed MOUZ | 30c | 264.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.18 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…5cd1backed Aurora | 77c | 261.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Aurora | 76c | 260.37$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.78 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…0d8abacked Aurora | 73c | 260.29$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.01 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6529backed MOUZ | 15c | 255.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.51 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Aurora | 73c | 235.62$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…efeebacked Aurora | 69c | 235$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.7 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked MOUZ | 45c | 222.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed MOUZ | 22c | 219.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.59 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed Aurora | 80c | 219.06$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.7 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed MOUZ | 28c | 217.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.86 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…054cbacked MOUZ | 27c | 216.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ | 41c | 207.86$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.77 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9798…12d2backed Aurora | 49c | 203.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Aurora | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…3170backed Aurora | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…4134backed Aurora | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Aurora | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…c74fbacked Aurora | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba2…89cfbacked Aurora | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aef…c58fbacked MOUZ | 18c | 183.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…04e9backed Aurora | 26c | 183.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 341 | 52.2%178 W · 163 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5261…3ddbbacked MOUZ | 56c | 180.63$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…a5b8backed MOUZ | 24c | 178.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.12 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…539abacked Aurora | 76c | 176.83$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.39 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2MOUZ won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)MOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.