TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof Aurora, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$178,829
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$185,918

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,829 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7744…999ebacked MOUZ26c44,153$11,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,808.54683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+89.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked MOUZ35c24,803$8,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,234.0555157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40ed…4ae2backed Aurora74c12,432$9,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,200633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-53.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora62c11,446$7,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,084.312,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ27c11,164$2,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,172.9745139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed MOUZ46c10,647$4,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,721.5815047.3%71 W · 79 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Aurora51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,100540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora70c9,187$6,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,401.0796557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed MOUZ48c7,220$3,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,789.1210741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed Aurora73c6,849$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00011359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora75c6,660$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed MOUZ39c5,352$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,264.5366662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Aurora74c5,000$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,70022848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed MOUZ22c4,800$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,743.9917651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Aurora39c4,555$1,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.2216050.6%81 W · 79 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Aurora75c4,444$3,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,346.855757.9%33 W · 24 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick72cpaid-22.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8d33…7287backed Aurora78c4,425$3,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,447.644746.8%22 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Aurora71c4,248$3,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,008.671353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ25c4,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,979.9989440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e7…6a52backed Aurora80c3,670$2,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,917.746256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Aurora74c3,659$2,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,707.6611547%54 W · 61 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed MOUZ30c3,320$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,319.1962650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60b4…6313backed Aurora76c2,633$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.9716160.2%97 W · 64 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb24e…c0bebacked Aurora2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Aurora75c2,314$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,736.522954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed Aurora74c2,250$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6651947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6eb…bc82backed Aurora2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick7cpaid-28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf076…9ac4backed Aurora74c2,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora60c1,861$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.048461.9%52 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed Aurora74c1,474$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.8615653.8%84 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Aurora52c1,440$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.8845061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Aurora73c1,370$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb51…359dbacked MOUZ26c1,283$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.78580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+86.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44e5…3c33backed Aurora78c1,282$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora71c1,261$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.172,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked MOUZ25c1,021$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.8216746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora75c1,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed MOUZ28c1,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7202100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+152.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfffd…a1e5backed MOUZ15c999.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.992030%6 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Aurora73c999.94$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.9588166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x471d…8b22backed MOUZ27c980.35$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.93580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+82.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x750c…2fe3backed MOUZ26c882.63$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.534100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+133.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb665…ed24backed MOUZ26c855.56$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.498540%34 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Aurora40c804.98$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.9916821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d1…ee7abacked Aurora34c750$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.824345.3%110 W · 133 L+15.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Aurora76c750$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57041655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb15f…7deebacked Aurora73c719.73$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.155552.7%29 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3260…85ddbacked Aurora75c700$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5226454.7%35 W · 29 L+7.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x41cc…adc7backed Aurora80c657.36$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.114045%18 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefa1…8a16backed Aurora72c651.63$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.171145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick64cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed Aurora64c634.99$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.4621851.8%113 W · 105 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Aurora73c600.89$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43726453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed MOUZ54c600$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2744032.5%13 W · 27 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora73c599.93$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.9558152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed Aurora74c567.59$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.277143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed MOUZ26c525.97$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.727447.3%35 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ36c516.4$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.581,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4169…5d25backed Aurora73c438$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.243231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-40.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb759…ed73backed Aurora69c430.96$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.2610049%49 W · 51 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Aurora77c429.1$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.059852%51 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed MOUZ24c415.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.0357455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9317…5a5fbacked Aurora73c410.96$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004072.5%29 W · 11 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3edb…5280backed MOUZ56c397.6$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.562161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Aurora76c394.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f6…b42bbacked MOUZ27c394.43$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+72.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Aurora45c385.69$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.112250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked MOUZ44c372.08$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.2777458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed Aurora61c361.17$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.8736051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed MOUZ49c336.9$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.5115457.1%88 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa83f…b857backed Aurora74c330$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.26547.7%31 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Aurora73c297.37$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.0859556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78fa…d5c3backed MOUZ26c292.73$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.512857.1%16 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+47.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked MOUZ28c282.76$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.9492056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x16d8…ba9ebacked Aurora76c277.07$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.448750.6%44 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6751…0d8abacked Aurora74c269.36$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed MOUZ30c264.22$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.1831245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefae…5cd1backed Aurora77c261.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001560%9 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Aurora76c260.37$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.784949%24 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e0…0d8abacked Aurora73c260.29$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.0126958.7%158 W · 111 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed MOUZ15c255.89$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.511650%8 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+47.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked Aurora73c235.62$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1722937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf597…efeebacked Aurora69c235$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.79223.9%22 W · 70 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked MOUZ45c222.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.229651%49 W · 47 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed MOUZ22c219.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.5928244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed Aurora80c219.06$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.719664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bef…be32backed MOUZ28c217.86$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.8613449.3%66 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec05…054cbacked MOUZ27c216.13$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.45475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+63.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ41c207.86$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.771,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9798…12d2backed Aurora49c203.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Aurora38c200$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7512061.7%74 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a60…3170backed Aurora80c200$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1606046.7%28 W · 32 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-20.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3cec…4134backed Aurora60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Aurora74c200$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14819856.1%111 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f07…c74fbacked Aurora7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba2…89cfbacked Aurora71c200$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick59cpaid-44.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1aef…c58fbacked MOUZ18c183.95$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.34666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+74.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0030…04e9backed Aurora26c183.32$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4734152.2%178 W · 163 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5261…3ddbbacked MOUZ56c180.63$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.683661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc49b…a5b8backed MOUZ24c178.58$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.128655.8%48 W · 38 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b5…539abacked Aurora76c176.83$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.392751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.