Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x523add15d90ab55fc5f375944e1ac60e6b9131cccf23004f8c5563314ceb7a6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $268,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $342,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $268,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Aurora | 74c | 92,288$68,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,994.76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked MOUZ | 26c | 55,901$14,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,277.05 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked MOUZ | 26c | 54,653$14,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,070.29 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed MOUZ | 16c | 22,487$3,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,606.64 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 13c | 8,010$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.98 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084b…3de6backed MOUZ | 14c | 7,181$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.06 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 75c | 7,031$5,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.92 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 76c | 6,584$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.62 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…47f4backed Aurora | 79c | 5,609$4,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.68 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ | 10c | 4,658$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.54 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed Aurora | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ | 25c | 4,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.99 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed MOUZ | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…efeebacked MOUZ | 1c | 2,409$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed MOUZ | 21c | 2,390$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…8b22backed Aurora | 75c | 2,307$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Aurora | 78c | 2,091$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.19 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Aurora | 78c | 2,005$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.28 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 80c | 1,847$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.43 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked MOUZ | 11c | 1,834$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.44 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d33…7287backed Aurora | 77c | 1,807$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.56 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Aurora | 76c | 1,791$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.59 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed MOUZ | 25c | 1,776$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.64 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…72babacked MOUZ | 21c | 1,414$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.88 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…ed24backed Aurora | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.35 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750c…2fe3backed Aurora | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.35 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Aurora | 80c | 1,253$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.13 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed MOUZ | 22c | 1,120$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.03 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed MOUZ | 25c | 1,096$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.85 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e5…3c33backed Aurora | 78c | 1,011$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6529backed MOUZ | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Aurora | 73c | 900$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Aurora | 74c | 883$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.58 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed MOUZ | 12c | 857.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd6…5f73backed MOUZ | 14c | 800$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…9ccfbacked Aurora | 76c | 739.3$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.07 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora | 76c | 703.41$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.91 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked MOUZ | 25c | 680.43$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.11 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ | 22c | 601.63$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.57 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked MOUZ | 27c | 578.53$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.69 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ | 21c | 555.41$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.51 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Aurora | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…8a16backed Aurora | 74c | 469.65$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed MOUZ | 30c | 442.43$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.73 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed MOUZ | 4c | 432.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Aurora | 77c | 390.9$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.91 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked MOUZ | 22c | 375$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb0…8ababacked MOUZ | 27c | 366.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed MOUZ | 23c | 366.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Aurora | 78c | 356.06$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed MOUZ | 23c | 354.87$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Aurora | 77c | 335.3$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…cf14backed MOUZ | 15c | 307.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed MOUZ | 26c | 299.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ | 14c | 286.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed MOUZ | 11c | 282.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Aurora | 72c | 275.36$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3260…85ddbacked Aurora | 73c | 275$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed MOUZ | 26c | 265.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Aurora | 77c | 249.91$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed MOUZ | 22c | 230$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked MOUZ | 16c | 213.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…359dbacked Aurora | 74c | 208.6$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…5d25backed Aurora | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb759…ed73backed Aurora | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…0d8abacked Aurora | 78c | 190.2$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed MOUZ | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…8063backed Aurora | 78c | 147.16$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +41%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed MOUZ | 25c | 130$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5261…3ddbbacked MOUZ | 27c | 129.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed MOUZ | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f21…19f0backed MOUZ | 22c | 109.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked MOUZ | 27c | 107.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Aurora | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Aurora | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Aurora | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ | 21c | 99.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked MOUZ | 30c | 98.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…63f6backed MOUZ | 20c | 93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…6381backed Aurora | 76c | 89.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed MOUZ | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…f080backed Aurora | 77c | 76.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…054cbacked Aurora | 76c | 70.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked MOUZ | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed MOUZ | 22c | 67.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Aurora | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 72c | 58.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Aurora | 75c | 55.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…3f4abacked MOUZ | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…16c3backed MOUZ | 24c | 52.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a8…2a71backed Aurora | 76c | 51.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Aurora | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…6c27backed Aurora | 76c | 43.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Aurora | 74c | 42.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Aurora | 78c | 42.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Aurora | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…fc0ebacked Aurora | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ae…613abacked Aurora | 74c | 39.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2MOUZ won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)MOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.