CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs Chinggis Warriors (BO3) - PGL Bucharest: East Asian Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3a14e1c42694dc4db09d0f6f59f7ddf2ad6d0b7bd508d882a7e51e3c8037a6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lynn Visionof Lynn Vision, Chinggis Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $221,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $278,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Chinggis Warriors | 30c | 151,747$46,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,277.48 | 424 | 40.3%171 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Lynn Vision | 69c | 73,000$50,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,630 | 392 | 49%192 W · 200 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Lynn Vision | 70c | 50,000$35,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,000 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lynn Vision | 70c | 12,378$8,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,713.47 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lynn Vision | 69c | 6,577$4,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,051.76 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Chinggis Warriors | 31c | 6,000$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,859.99 | 285 | 38.2%109 W · 176 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92d…e560backed Lynn Vision | 69c | 2,200$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682 | 586 | 51%299 W · 287 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Lynn Vision | 70c | 2,143$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.86 | 274 | 52.9%145 W · 129 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…359dbacked Lynn Vision | 70c | 1,698$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed Chinggis Warriors | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 161 | 49.1%79 W · 82 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Lynn Vision | 69c | 1,443$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.35 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…c005backed Lynn Vision | 69c | 1,304$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.24 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ec…5348backed Chinggis Warriors | 24c | 1,261$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.32 | 724 | 53.7%389 W · 335 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…ed24backed Lynn Vision | 70c | 1,132$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750c…2fe3backed Lynn Vision | 70c | 1,130$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…7e65backed Lynn Vision | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Lynn Vision | 69c | 966.81$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.71 | 970 | 40.7%395 W · 575 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Lynn Vision | 75c | 910$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 420 | 57.6%242 W · 178 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…5dd3backed Lynn Vision | 71c | 900$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 239 | 40.2%96 W · 143 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc7…0602backed Lynn Vision | 71c | 671.61$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.77 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Lynn Vision | 73c | 628.39$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.24 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…b42bbacked Lynn Vision | 70c | 499.52$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed Chinggis Warriors | 21c | 397.42$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 130 | 30.8%40 W · 90 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0193…bad1backed Lynn Vision | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Chinggis Warriors | 30c | 262.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19dc…4b3fbacked Lynn Vision | 75c | 212.95$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Chinggis Warriors | 31c | 200.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Lynn Vision | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 534 | 44.9%240 W · 294 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Lynn Vision | 70c | 185.67$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Lynn Vision | 79c | 182.28$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…054cbacked Lynn Vision | 70c | 170.13$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Lynn Vision | 78c | 167.19$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Lynn Vision | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 482 | 42.1%203 W · 279 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…f59abacked Lynn Vision | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…d850backed Lynn Vision | 80c | 138.38$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…d6d1backed Lynn Vision | 80c | 121.08$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Lynn Vision | 70c | 119.71$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Lynn Vision | 69c | 119.36$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Lynn Vision | 70c | 112.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 198 | 50.5%100 W · 98 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Chinggis Warriors | 26c | 104$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 335 | 39.4%132 W · 203 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Chinggis Warriors | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…750abacked Chinggis Warriors | 30c | 90.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3938…c6cbbacked Lynn Vision | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa288…401cbacked Lynn Vision | 70c | 86.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Chinggis Warriors | 22c | 77.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…bf36backed Lynn Vision | 70c | 73.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 44cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a7ecbacked Lynn Vision | 70c | 70.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Chinggis Warriors | 32c | 64.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…b2a1backed Chinggis Warriors | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Chinggis Warriors | 26c | 54.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…b550backed Lynn Vision | 69c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…3152backed Lynn Vision | 70c | 50.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Chinggis Warriors | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 402 | 47.8%192 W · 210 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Chinggis Warriors | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Chinggis Warriors | 34c | 49.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 291 | 53.6%156 W · 135 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Lynn Vision | 61c | 48.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f27…781dbacked Lynn Vision | 78c | 44.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…8763backed Lynn Vision | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 225 | 51.1%115 W · 110 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Lynn Vision | 74c | 42.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 77cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Chinggis Warriors | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…d8cebacked Lynn Vision | 71c | 39.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c9…d487backed Chinggis Warriors | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked Lynn Vision | 70c | 30.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0af…6fc6backed Lynn Vision | 69c | 29.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8be8…5029backed Lynn Vision | 70c | 28.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…1c6ebacked Lynn Vision | 70c | 28.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Lynn Vision | 76c | 25.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +6.5wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x546e…ec0cbacked Lynn Vision | 70c | 24.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Lynn Vision | 65c | 23.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 147 | 28.6%42 W · 105 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d59…811bbacked Lynn Vision | 70c | 22.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd468…f6febacked Lynn Vision | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 460 | 42.8%197 W · 263 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Lynn Vision | 70c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…8fa3backed Lynn Vision | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 217 | 62.7%136 W · 81 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf4…8c98backed Lynn Vision | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…b1a1backed Lynn Vision | 71c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…a31bbacked Lynn Vision | 70c | 15.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed Lynn Vision | 70c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1878…85e2backed Lynn Vision | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +6.2wins | +0.29per pick | 61cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs Chinggis Warriors (BO3) - PGL Bucharest: East Asian Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs Chinggis Warriors - Map 1 WinnerLynn Vision won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.